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4% Texas (8:05 ET): So the Rangers had themselves a nice weekend by taking three of four from the division rival Angels. The only game they lost, Saturday, saw them blow a 7-4 lead in the eighth inning. I was happy to see it as I’d bet the Angels in that one. But I’ve also previously written that few teams in all of baseball have a larger discrepancy right now between actual and expected wins than do the Rangers. This is a team with a +11 YTD run differential, but is nine games below .500. Based on that run differential, you’d expect them to be three games ABOVE .500. Coming into this series with revenge (for a three-game sweep suffered in early July), I expect Texas to do well at home, starting Monday night. 

Yesterday was the Rangers’ turn to rally as they scored three runs in the top of the ninth to win 5-2. They won despite only five hits for the game and being on the wrong end of an immaculate inning (three straight strikeouts on nine pitches) for a record-setting third time this season. But as alluded to above, Texas was overdue some good fortune. Here on Monday, they need not worry about the mound as Jon Gray will toe the rubber. He’s been exceptional this season despite allowing four runs in a loss to Seattle his last time out. Prior to that, Gray had gone eight consecutive starts without allowing more than three earned runs. He did not pitch in the previous series vs. Baltimore, which saw the Orioles win three one-run games. The Rangers have won seven of the last nine games started by Gray, who is also 4-0 with a 2.93 ERA and 0.978 WHIP at home this season. 

While you do have to “tip your cap” to Baltimore for being .500 this late into the season, the fact is they’ve been decidedly mediocre since having that 10-game win streak snapped on 7/15. They’ve gone just 7-6 since after dropping two straight in Cincinnati over the weekend. I successfully faded them on Saturday, and in the analysis, pointed out the fact Fangraphs still has the Orioles projected for the second worst win percentage (ahead of only Oakland) in the American League, the rest of the way. Spenser Watkins does have a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts, but allowed 10 hits in his last one and has a 4.03 ERA/1.414 WHIP for the year. Can’t see him outdueling Gray on the road and the O’s bats have gone rather silent the last week or so. 4% Texas