Recent Play Details

9:38 PM ET -- MLB

Game: (973) Texas Rangers at (974) Los Angeles Angels

Play: UNDER 7.5 (-113)

List Pitchers: Perez & Sandoval

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters:
3% play at 7.5 or better
2% play at 7

My MLB totals plays are determined by a combination of statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games  (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

Trends/Angles/Thoughts:

-> Over the last 30 days, the Angels own a horrible 24 wRC+ (76% BELOW the MLB average) against lefties at home.

-> Over the last 30 days, the Rangers own a weak 64 wRC+ (36% BELOW the MLB average) against lefties on the road.

-> SANDOVAL allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of 8 home starts this season.

-> PEREZ allowed 1 run or less in 6 of 9 road starts this season.

-> PEREZ is 9-1 UNDER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 
The average score was PEREZ 4.2, OPPONENT 2.4

-> LA ANGELS are 11-2 UNDER vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.90 or better this season. 
The average score was LA ANGELS 3.1, OPPONENT 2.9

-> TEXAS is 7-0 UNDER in road games after a game with a combined score of 3 runs or less this season. 
The average score was TEXAS 1.6, OPPONENT 2.6

-> PEREZ is 10-1 UNDER in road games after a win over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) 
The average score was PEREZ 3.5, OPPONENT 3.1