Recent Play Details

Padres (9:40PM ET BSSD, BSNO, MLB Network) – The Rangers did eventually get to Othani as I thought they might but the offense wasn’t really needed as Rangers pitching combines for a shutout and another easy 5% MAX winner.  We are rolling now in MLB, and rolling on 5% plays as we have now cashed FIVE straight MAX winners and are on an 8-1 run on our 5% MAX plays.  As I’ve done in the past, I will press with 5% plays when I see viable opportunity as long as they are cashing so lets stay out west and go again on Friday when the San Diego Padres kick off a three game set with the Minnesota Twins at PETCO Park in San Diego, California. 

I’m not putting a ton of stock in the Padres poor performance in Detroit as I think there was a hangover of sorts from taking two of three at Citi Field and having to play on Sunday Night Baseball.  San Diego also had that series won until inexplicably throwing the game away in the 9th inning and now that the Padres have had an off day to stew over that result I think we see a big bounce effort at home here.  Minnesota had a travel day yesterday as well after being swept in a brief two game series in Milwaukee and now head to their third different city in five days on this road trip.  Minnesota is a team I have pegged for some regression and I expect that regression to kick in on the road where the Twins have played sub .500 baseball since the beginning of 2020.  I think PETCO will be buzzing tonight, there’s talks that the Padres might land Juan Soto and this is a team that will get Fernando Tatis Jr back at some point so I’ll be targeting the Pads as a “PLAY ON” going forward.  My guess is the Padres make a change at closer after Rogers most recent implosion which will be for the better (at least in the short term) and I like the potential “shake up” to light a fire under a Padres team that has the intangibles to be one of the best teams in the majors.

Minnesota’s pitching has been a disaster, the only team with a worse ERA since July 6th is the Red Sox as Twins pitchers clock in with a team ERA of 6.24 during that span.  The one guy that’s been decent in that stretch gets the ball tonight in Joe Ryan but he’s struggled to make it past five innings of late and a short outing would leave the Twins vulnerable here.  It’s safe to say San Diego will get something, Ryan has now gone 11 consecutive starts where he’s conceded at least one earned run and he’s only pitched past the sixth inning once in his last eight starts.  Even when Ryan is great he usually gives up something, and he rarely goes more than six innings, so I’m banking on the Padres giving Blake Snell at least a run or two to work with here.  I know the Padres just blew a close one but I love my chances if this is a close game late as the Twins have a bullpen that I’ve rated bottom 10 for the majority of the season and enter play with a -0.1 bullpen WAR which is 29th in MLB and the worst mark in the American League.  I won’t be surprised if San Diego has this one in control early but even if the Padres trail I think the last nine outs could be a real adventure for this Twins bullpen on the road here.

As I alluded to already, the Padres counter with southpaw Blake Snell. I understand why no one wants to touch Snell, the former ace has been terrible since moving to San Diego with an ERA in the 4.00’s and a career high WHIP but he was excellent against the Mets over the weekend and I could see Snell building on that outing here.  If you throw out a recent outing at Coors Field Snell has actually been great as he struck out 12 Dodgers in a no decision, recorded his first win of the season with 11 strikeouts against the Giants and most recently went on the road to beat the Mets.  For Snell that amounts to a 2-0 record with a 3.20 ERA in July and there’s a tangible reason for it as Snell is using his curveball more and it's had opposing offenses completely off balance.  San Diego has had a couple key individuals that have struggled in their bullpen but collectively the Padres bullpen has been great with a 3.1 WAR and 1.22 WHIP, both of which are Top 10 marks in MLB.  Again, I think Bob Melvin shakes up the closer situation going forward and, because there are plenty of good arms in this bullpen, it’s a move I think will pay dividends in the short term.  The Twins haven’t seen Snell in three years and haven’t seen Padres relievers at all so I think this sets up nicely for the Padres to have a pitching advantage with what is just far better pitching top to bottom in this game. 

When it’s all said and done I think we are getting the better team with the better pitching stack at home at a very cheap price.  I expect the Twins regression that started a few days ago in Milwaukee to continue here.  Play on Padres -113 for 5% (or 5 units)