Recent Play Details

8:10 PM ET -- MLB

Game: (917) Seattle Mariners at (918) Houston Astros

Play: FIRST 5 INNINGS OVER 4.5 (-105)

List Pitchers: Gilbert & Urquidy

Bet Size: 5%

Line Parameters:
5% play at 4.5 or better
3% play at 5

My MLB totals plays are determined by a combination of statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games  (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

Trends/Angles/Thoughts:

-> Both pitchers also faced tonight's opponent in their last start. Gilbert allowed just 2 runs in 6 innings against Houston 5 days ago, while Urquidy allowed just 1 run in 6 innings against Seattle 6 days go. History shows that hitters for both sides should be able to adjust and have more success in this rematch because...

-> Neither of these pitchers has fared well this season when having to face a team for the second time within 3 starts (see below).

-> Urquidy allowed 2 runs in 5 2/3 innings to Toronto on 4/23, then allowed 4 runs to the Jays in 5 innings just 6 days later. He allowed 6 runs in 4 2/3 innings to these Mariners on 5/28, then allowed 5 runs in 4 1/3 innings to Seattle 11 days later.  Urquidy allowed 3 runs in 8 innings to the light-hitting A's on 7/8, then allowed 3 runs in just 6 innings to Oakland a week later.  So, the quick turnaround rematch has consistently been worse for Urquidy. The same can be said for Gilbert (see below).

-> Gilbert tossed 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Rays on 4/26, then allowed 4 runs in 5 innings to TB just 10 days later. He tossed 7 scoreless innings against these Astros on 5/28, then allowed 3 runs in 6 innings 11 days later.  Lastly, Gilbert allowed 2 runs in 6 innings against the Angels on 6/19, then allowed 3 runs in 6 innings to LA 6 days later.

-> GILBERT is 11-2 OVER after giving up 2 earned runs or less in his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

-> HOUSTON owns a 122 wRC+ against righties at home (22% better than the MLB average), including a whopping 147 over the last 30 days.

-> SEATTLE owns a 116 wRC+ against righties on the road over the last 30 days (16% better than the MLB average).