Recent Play Details

We won't blame you if you stopped paying attention to the Reds after their disastrous start to the season, but Cincinnati has been playing very respectable baseball over the last two months. The Reds have won eight of their last 12 games, including series wins over the Rays, Cardinals and Yankees.

Cincinnati will hand the ball to 24-year-old Nick Lodolo, making his seventh start. Lodolo's baseball card numbers (i.e. 5.81 ERA) are not very impressive, but advanced metrics suggest that he's performing much better than those numbers. He's got a very poor .401 weighted on-base average this year, but his expected weighted on-base average is only .325 (MLB average is .315). His expected ERA (4.39) is almost a run-and-a-half lower than his actual ERA. His average exit velocity and expected batting average are both better than MLB average. He's faced some really good teams in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but he should receive some class relief on Monday night against the Marlins.

Miami is hitting .214 against left-hand pitching this season, which is worst in the league. What makes this matchup so appealing from Cincinnati's side is Miami's strikeout rate. The Marlins strike out 27.2-percent of the time against left-hand pitching, which is almost five percentage points worse than the No. 29 time. Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park is a haven for home runs in the summer, but Lodolo is capable of limiting that threat with strikeouts. Lodolo's strikeout rate and whiff rate are both in the top-15 percentile among pitchers this season.

Neither team is particularly healthy at the moment, but the Marlins are really struggling. Brian Anderson was placed on the IL yesterday. Garrett Cooper missed yesterday's game after being hit by a pitch on Saturday. Jorge Soler is undergoing treatment for back spasms. Jon Berti is recovering from a groin strain. Jazz Chisholm Jr. will be out for another six weeks.

The Reds have been at home all weekend, so they don't have any travel to worry about. Play Cincinnati on the full-game moneyline, which is widely available at -130 at the time of posting.