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England Premier League

First of all, I have a season futures bet on Arsenal and they have looked very strong in the preseason, but I see this as a tough opener for them as Palace has proven to be a tough team to beat, especially at home where they lost just four games last year with a +10 goal differential. 

In fact, to end last year, Palace lost just four of their final 15 games, both home and away combined.  They also made a run to the FA Cup semifinals during that same time period where they lost 0-2 to Chelsea.

Palace didn't lose much during the summer transfer but did further bolster their defense, which was already good last year, ranking as the 4th best defense in the league according to xG, allowing just 1.09 xGA per game, behind only City, Liverpool and Chelsea.  They added Doucoure as a defensive midfielder from Lens in France and Chris Richards a centre-back from Bayern Munich.

Of course I'm expecting, as many are, Arsenal to be much improved this year with the additions they made to their squad and with Arteta with a full season under his belt, but they have struggled vs Palace in recents seasons with just one win in eight matches over the last four seasons.  I expect Palace to put up a good fight here and possibly even sneak out a win.

TAKE CRYSTAL PALACE +0.5

Line Parameter: 4% to -130, 3% at +0.25