Recent Play Details

4:05 PM ET -- MLB

Game: (977) Philadelphia Phillies at (978) Texas Rangers

Play: FIRST 5 INNINGS UNDER 4 (-115)

List Pitchers: Wheeler & Gray

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters:
3% play at 4 or better
2% play at 3.5

My MLB totals plays are determined by a combination of statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games  (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

-> Prior to allowing 1 run in a road start against the Nationals, Zack Wheeler allowed an average of 2 runs in road starts against the Dodgers, Braves & Mets (all WAY better offenses than Texas').

-> Wheeler & Gray both allowed just 1 run in 13 innings in their last two starts.

-> Gray gave up 3 runs in 3 innings in Philly on May 3rd, so I expect him to make the necessary adjustments in this rematch.