Recent Play Details

Reds (6:40PM ET BSOH, SNLA, MLB.TV) – SSG blows two late leads but beats the tag on a play at the plate and wins it 6-5 in extras.  That’s now SEVEN consecutive winners, we have four straight in Major League Baseball including yesterday’s blowout 5% winner with the Rangers and I’ll continue to press this run with another 5% MAX MLB bet when the Cincinnati Reds take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the second game of a three game set at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. 

As per usual, the betting public has the Dodgers as an auto bet at anything under -200 but I don’t think that’s justified right now as the Dodgers have been struggling for the better part of a month sitting at just 8-11 in their past 19 games.  I will acknowledge the fact all eight of those wins came by margin but there was more than one occasion where the Dodgers were fortunate to tack on the extra run and I’m going to back the Reds on the +1.5 run line because it’s a cheap price and if they do lose this game it’s probably blown late and that +1.5 might be the reason we cash this ticket.  With that being said I like this spot for the Reds to win, I feel like we have the better starting pitcher and I find it hard to believe the Reds get completely blanked on this homestand.  The Dodgers have owned the Reds the past couple seasons but teams always get up to play the Dodgers and after last night’s mauling I think the Reds come out pissed off and give a far better effort here. 

Let’s start with the Reds, they give the ball to Luis Castillo and, despite what irrelevant win/loss records might have you think, he’s the superior pitcher here. Castillo missed the first month of the season but has been lights out since getting his 2022 underway with a 1.09 WHIP and eight consecutive starts where he’s allowed three earned runs or less. I expect that from Castillo again here as he’s owned the Dodgers during his career going 3-0 with a 1.90 ERA in four career starts against Los Angeles.  Castillo has four different pitches and throws all of them well and that’s going to be a nightmare for a Dodgers lineup that’s struggled to string hits together for the better part of the past three weeks.  Cincinnati has had their issues this season but they have hit and if you look at the splits the Reds are a far better offensive team at Great American Ballpark.  The Reds are averaging a healthy 5.7 runs per game at home this season and with Castillo not giving many up I think it’s only going to take one crooked number to have the Reds in excellent position to cash this ticket here. 

The Dodgers give the ball to Tyler Anderson, I’ll tip my cap to him as he got me last time out when he nearly no hit the Dodgers but he’s now 8-0 with a 2.82 ERA and 0.94 WHIP and if you look at his career numbers there’s just no logical way for this to continue.  On Monday I did Money Shots with Kelly and Megan and talked about how Miles Mikolas had to be a fade after throwing 129 pitches in a near no hitter against the Pirates and sure enough Mikolas came out and lost to the Brewers.  I fully expect the same thing to happen here, Anderson hurled 123 pitches last time out taking a no hitter into the 9th against the Angels which is actually insane since he’s thrown 100+ just one other time all season.  Anderson actually hasn’t cracked 90 pitches in any other start so I can’t see how he has success or gives the Dodgers any actual length after a 123 pitch outing here. What that means is the Dodgers bullpen should be involved early and that’s not necessarily a bad thing as the Dodgers bullpen has taken a step back from “elite” status entering play with the 8th best bullpen ERA and the 6th best WHIP in the league.  Those are strong numbers for any other team but this is the Dodgers who, night in and night out, get priced as if they are far and away the best team in the league.  The Dodgers 41-25 record puts them in the mix but this Dodgers team has been extremely average for the past three weeks and I just don’t think they should be laying -1.5 at close to evens in what I have as a great matchup for the Reds here.

In the end I think this is a great spot for the Reds to bounce back at home after last night’s embarrassing 8-2 loss.  The Reds have the better starter here, they have hit the ball well at home all season and I think they bring a tired Tyler Anderson back to Earth while getting the money against this very cheap run line.  Play on Reds +1.5 (-118) for 5% (or 5 units)