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Rangers (8:05 PM ET BSSW, NSPA, MLB.TV) – The Royals roll out west and we cash our lone selection on Monday.  That’s back-to-back winners in MLB, we have been red hot on the bases all season and I’ll look to continue this fantastic run with a 5% MLB MAX BET in the Lone Star State when the Texas Rangers take on the Philadelphia Phillies in the opener of a quick two-game set at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.
 

Last week we split a pair of doubleheader bets against Philadelphia but I still feel like the Phillies came away from that five-game series in D.C. with more than they deserved.  The Nationals played good enough to win both games on Friday as well as the game on Saturday and finally broke through with a 9-3 blowout win over the Phillies on Sunday.  The Joe Girardi firing proved to be a spark for Philadelphia but the Phillies also had the good fortune of playing teams like the Angels and Brewers who, at the time, were mired in easily their biggest respective slumps of the season.  Philadelphia then drew the Diamondbacks and Marlins at home (two teams that will likely finish well under .500 this year) and followed that with five games against the Nationals who are widely considered to be the worst team in the National League this season.  The Phillies did have yesterday off but had to travel so that’s five games in four days followed by a travel day and another road game against a Rangers team I believe to be better than advertised this season.  The Rangers enter play 5-4 in their last nine games and off a split of a four-game set in Detroit over the weekend.  The market has the Phillies pumped up right now but I think these teams are relatively even and see nice edges with the Rangers having the better starting pitcher on their home diamond here.  

Martin Perez gets the ball for the Rangers, he’s having a career year and dazzled again last time out tossing seven innings of one-run ball against the Tigers in Detroit.  Perez enters play with a 2.10 ERA and 1.11 WHIP and he completely shut the Phillies down in Philadelphia earlier this season tossing seven shutout innings in a no-decision that the Rangers went on to win in extra innings.  Perez hasn’t lost since losing his first two starts of the season and has really only been hit hard once recently which was by a white-hot White Sox team that crushes left-handed pitching.  The Phillies bats cooled off considerably over the weekend in the final two games against the Nationals and this Phillies pitching staff still isn’t good enough to win many games without ample run support.  Texas has a vastly underrated bullpen, it goes unnoticed because the overall pitching numbers for the Rangers aren’t great but the bullpen enters play 11th in MLB with a 3.64 ERA and 12th in MLB with a 1.23 WHIP.  Perez has been by far the Rangers best starter and I expect him to get the ball to the Rangers superior bullpen in position to win here.

The Phillies counter with Kyle Gibson, he tossed a gem last time out against the Marlins but prior to that gave up at least two runs in seven consecutive starts and I think this Rangers lineup can get to him here.  The Rangers didn’t see Gibson when these two teams met in Philadelphia earlier this season but should know him well since he spent a season and a half on this Rangers roster and was in the American League with the Twins prior to his stint in Arlington.  If you throw out Gibson’s last start against the Marlins the numbers are pedestrian as he almost never goes more than six innings and he hasn’t made it that far into a game in any other start without giving up a couple of runs.  When Gibson leaves the game we get a Phillies bullpen that enters play with a 1.44 WHIP which is 28th out of 30 MLB teams.  Gibson has given up a home run in three of his last four starts, the Rangers enter play with 82 home runs which is 8th in MLB and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of longballs set the tone for the Rangers here.

In the end, I think it’s time to start playing against a Phillies team that is now way overvalued due to a winning streak that the betting public latched onto after the firing of Girardi.  The Phillies are an average team that’s being priced like a division leader right now while the Rangers are a team hanging around .500 that’s been getting a steady sharp buy pretty much all season.  Here we have the better starting pitcher, the superior bullpen, and the home team at a cheap price.  I also like the spot to fade the Phillies as they come off of five games in four days with a division rival so let’s roll with the Rangers for a 5% MAX BET here.  Play on Rangers -113 for 5% (or 5 units)