Recent Play Details

Kia Tigers (5:30AM ET Naver TV) – KT Wiz get it done for us on Sunday and that’s now a 5-1 run in KBO.  We are well on our way to another excellent KBO season and we will look to stay hot on the bases when the Kia Tigers open up a three game set with the Lotte Giants at Gwangju-Kia Champions Field in Gwangju, South Korea.

Kia had a rough weekend against Samsung but back to back losses and a day off should serve to reset their bullpen and Kia has an undervalued starting pitcher here.  Kia also has the far superior offense, I have their lineup rated as the most productive in the league and I like how the Tigers match up against Lotte starter Charlie Barnes who has dropped off considerably since the beginning of the season. Lotte can’t seem to catch a break in the injury department, every time they get a player back another seems to get hurt and that was the case this weekend when Chi-Hong An suffered a hand injury.  An wasn’t in the lineup on Sunday, he’s listed as day to day right now but it’s likely he will be out of the lineup again here.  Without An, Lotte will trot out one of the least productive lineups in the league (in terms of who will actually be on the field on Tuesday) which makes this a great overall matchup for Kia.  I’m less worried about Kia’s bullpen after a day off and think getting the run head start with the Tigers is a steal in a game they likely win.

The first time through the league for Lotte pitcher Charlie Barnes was historic but now that the league has a book on him he’s been getting hit regularly and I think that ends up being the case here.  Kia has now had the luxury of seeing him twice, the Tigers destroyed him last time out to the tune of seven runs on eight hits, and I fully expect Kia to put some runs on the board here.  Since that start Barnes has given up at least three earned runs in every start which makes it six consecutive starts where he’s allowed three earned runs or more.  Unsurprisingly, Barnes has won just once in that span and that came last time out against Hanwha who enters play in dead last in the league.  Lotte’s bullpen has dropped considerably since the beginning of the season as the Giants enter play on Tuesday just 6th out of 10 teams in bullpen ERA.  There’s not a single pitcher on this Lotte roster that Kia isn’t capable of hitting and I fully expect the Tigers to score enough to be in position to win here.

Kia counters here with Gi-Yeong Im and I have him undervalued based on the fact he has a 3.98 ERA (which is good) but a 1.17 WHIP (which borders on elite). Im has been unlucky to give up as many runs as he has when guys are on base but his stuff is solid and I think he takes a step forward here.  Lotte has yet to see Im this season and with An out of the lineup I rate Lotte’s lineup the worst of any team in the league.  I think Kia will hit here which means for Lotte to win this game by margin the Giants are going to need to score some runs and I just don’t see that happening on the road where Lotte has been worse this season. The only thing that ever keeps me off of Kia is their bullpen but the Tigers have all of their high leverage guys available having not used them in losses on Saturday and Sunday and then having the day off on Monday.  With the underrated Im starting and the Kia bullpen fresh I think the Tigers pitching stacks up strong enough for me to get involved here.

In the end I’m happy to grab the +1.5 and fade the premium being placed on Charlie Barnes here.  Barnes is a solid starting pitcher in this league but teams are starting to figure him out and I have Kia as the best offensive team in KBO right now.  If An doesn’t play that’s a huge blow for a Lotte lineup that is already shorthanded.  Kia needs a win after back-to-back losses and if they lose it’s probably because they blew it late and the +1.5 should hold up.  Play on Kia Tigers +1.5 (-130) for 4% (or 4 units)