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Play NEW YORK YANKEES -123 (money-line play on this 5% Big Ticket at the Trop on Monday night is good too -140)
5% confidence rating
List Pitchers: Cole and McClanahan
HP Umpire: Ryan Blakney is pitcher-friendly. And in the Yanks' favor, he has a history with Cole, one that finds the umpire averaging 4:1 Ks to BB ratio, and Blakney is a perfect 5-0 across the last five times Cole has pitched with Blakney working home plate.
Weather: The Trop is a permanent dome MLB facility

The Rays are coming off a road trip that saw them lose three straight series sets. The three teams they lost more than they won against on their latest road trip were the Orioles, the Twins, and ... the Yankees.

The Rays have a history with the Yankees, and their success against the pinstripers has been unusually successful over the last few years. However, this isn't the same Rays team; it isn't close to the troupes that held a mental edge over the Yankees, and since the Rays' boy wonder, Wander, was injured and placed on the IL, this Tampa Bay team has been soft offensively.

The MLB experts and pundits continue the same dialogue that began yesterday afternoon with Toronto overcoming a five run deficit to mount a come-from-behind victory over the Yankees. To consider streaming the Yanks to put together five-run a losing streak is against the grain. Since April 15th, the Yankees have lost two or more games in a row just twice.

Tonight's matchup doesn't favor the Rays because the Yankees lost on Sunday. The plane ride from Toronto to Florida will not affect the fatigue, nor will the players have any jet lag because the time zone they left is the same one they arrived in.

The advantage tonight, and might I suggest that the advantage I believe that New York has, and my math is overwhelming accurate and my releases, in turn, successful to the degree that clients that have been with me the entire baseball season, this 2022 summer, have nearly doubled their bankroll at their sportsbook or books.

The Rays coaching staff seems to be missing the who and the what about tonight's game. I was told by a Tampa Bay beat writer yesterday that the Rays coaching staff would begin mixing and matching the personnel in particular lineups and the cards they submit. Tonight's Tampa lineup has a trio of players that make the Gerrit Cole strikeout prop a play-on or play-over to be accurate.

Gerrit Cole has thrown anything he wants against the Rays this season, and in years past, the Tampa Bay bats can't put wood on cowhide. Cole has been ridiculously dominating when pitching to the Rays in the last two head-to-head meetings.

Before I serve a nugget or two of the domination that Cole has pushed the Rays into recently, a large part of Cole's success is the failures that the Tampa Bay lineup has had, putting hard contact on the baseball.

And if you know, Cole like the Major League Baseball Rayspersonnel know Cole, you know, as they do, that Cole kicks when a fellow is down.

Cole owns a 0.75 ERA with only seven hits, and one earned run in 12 innings of work against the Rays this season.

The Rays send their best or more reliable pitcher to the hill tonight to oppose Cole. Shane McClanahan and this Rays team have been fortunate to be where they are in the standings, the AL East standings. Then why the Rays are lucky is the SOS they have played in the first almost-three months into the season.

Opposing teams have averaged a mere 3.47 runs per game at the Trop.  Shane McClanahan offers this Tampa Bay squad a chance to keep the game close and gives Tampa a feeling, and a false sense is the best way to paint the picture; that false feeling is that this Rays team is capable of putting up more than a two-run half-innings qualified. An offensive explosion isn’t a variable that this Tampa Bay team is capable of or can count on most game nights- and might we assume that a crooked number against Cole is more complex than most.

McClanahan has contained the Yankees across his 12 innings against the Pinstripes this 2022 season. McClanahan has registered a 1.50 ERA allowing ten hits and only two earned runs versus the Bronx Bombers. However, a rinse and repeat from McClanahan would surprise me.

The Rays are not good enough as a lineup to bunch hits together. This is the case against a Cole, without question when the current pitching staff of the Rays is scuffling for a day off or rest after a long relief appearance.

Cole has had zero mercy when on the mound this season. The Rays can't hit pedestrian pitchers from Baltimore or Minnesota ... let alone Cole.

The 24-year-old Tampa southpaw had a quality rookie campaign for a kid who tossed only 18.1 IP in Double-A in 2019. The lefty finishes the regular season with a 3.43 ERA, 10.3 K/9, and 2.7 BB/9 across 25 starts (123.1 innings).

Where the Yankees get to McClanahan, tonight is when he becomes comfortable pitching at the Trop. McClanahan has been and can be hit hard (45% hard-hit rate per Statcast). The moment tonight in Tampa won't be anything that will overwhelm the Yanks, not a chance.

No team in baseball has a higher EV than the Yanks. No group has hit more quality contact through the first two-plus months of the season than New York, and Cole is current not human ... he is pitching with a passion and a purpose ... and this Rays offense, that is struggling to scratch out a hit; it should wave the white flag early.

A number of Tampa Bay Rays' personnel, regulars in the game night lineup, are surprisingly absent for tonight's tilt. Advantage Cole and the Yanks. The lineup card tonight shows that the two replacement players for the Yanks have had zero success against Cole in their careers .. and that is the difference in the Yanks winning and Cole registering double-digit strikeouts 

NEW YORK YANKEES -123