Recent Play Details

GUARDIANS at DODGERS PLAYER PROP II - Andrew Heaney Over 5.5 Strikeouts +118
3% confidence rating
Andrew Heaney (Total Strikeouts)(must start)
HP Umpire: Dan Merzel
Heaney Over 5.5 Strikeouts +118

The Tribe, formerly known as the Indians or Tribe, at Chavez Ravine to oppose the hometown Dodgers is a rare occurrence for me in terms of having pitching props on both starters in the same category, that being “Strikeouts Thrown.”

The pitcher props from this west coast contest are my third and fourth MLB Propositions that rate at 3% (the highest I rate NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NBA, and College Basketball Props, outside of a handful of exceptions that are clearly noted in the reports and analysis when it happens).

The common denominator of my player props, those rated 3% this 2022 season, has been the umpire, Dan Merzel.

I am pasting in a previous breakdown of a pitcher prop in which Merzel was the scheduled home plate umpire. It will give you an excellent example of the investment's what, who, and why. 

____
BELOW IS A PREVIOUS PROP ANALYSIS as I outlined above

Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop I  - Play Greene Over 6.5 Strikeouts  (-115)
Hunter Greene (Total Strikeouts)(must start)
Greene Over 6.5 Strikeouts  (-115)

The Diamondbacks lineup, as a whole, does not chase an abundance of pitches and has a pedestrian walk ratio for a team that began tanking before the shortened Spring Training was complete. I wouldn't put them in the same folder as the Tanking Athletics, but this is not … I repeat … NOT a good team. The caveat to the “NOT” in terms of talent for the Diamondbacks is that it doesn't prevent us from playing on or against a team, any team, that fits inside specific game or personnel situations.

Tonight is one of those situations. 

I do not need overwhelming evidence to throw a player proposition to the daily card; however, if I have what rates are overwhelming, consider the position taken and the investment made. 

Hunter Greene, the young fireballer for the Reds, is scheduled for tonight's Game 1 assignment in a series at GAB versus the Diamondbacks. 

Greene, like most hard-throwing greenhorns, has command issues. He misses enough bats to supplement a walk or five inside his starts. The Reds' right-hander is coming off a start against the Red Sox, where he lasted only 3.2 innings. His work included surrendering six hits and four runs without a walk against eight strikeouts. It was his shortest start, in terms of outs, since the beginning of May. On the season, Greene has thrown 48 innings and allowed 49 hits and 33 earned runs. He has struck out 64 in those 48 frames. 

Tonight's scheduled home plate umpire is Dan Merzel, who is always an umpire I follow and play K props with because of his K-rate. When Merzel is behind the plate calling balls and strikes, hitters strike out at a 25% clip. 

This is a terrific situation for Greene and us, with a strikeout prop on Greene. Not only does Merzel love to call third strikes with an animated showing with his right arm, his strike zone figures to be even larger with the forecast at Great American Ballpark. 

Greene Over 6.5 Strikeouts  (-115)

_______________

The above analysis could be more expansive, offering idiosyncracies of Merzel when aligned with a specific pitcher and his tendencies with said specific pitchers. It is not, but it gives you a brief understanding of our advantages on pitcher strikeout props when Merzel is behind the plate. In a getaway day game, with two pitchers who not only understand the “Art of the K” but have matchups today that are, in fact,, favorable, offers us a return on investment that is more likely that we cash than tear the ticket up. 

Heaney has been on the IL since mid-April. After tossing six scoreless innings on April 17 against the Reds, Heaney felt discomfort in his left shoulder. The left-hander tried to play catch two days after the start, but his shoulder was still sore, more so than is typical.

Time-line for Heaney and his rehab

• Heaney threw his first bullpen session a month after suffering the strain, on May 17. The left-hander told the LA media on May 18 that the session “went well,” and he’s optimistic about his return happening “within weeks.”
• Heaney threw a bullpen session on May 20 in Philadelphia, his second 'pen session since landing on the IL. According to my Dodgers sources, he threw approximately 30 pitches, working in his fastball, slider, and changeup, with his fastball checking in at 90 mph and touching 92 on the stadium gun. 
• Heaney threw another bullpen session the following Monday afternoon, May 23rd, simulating an inning break halfway through throwing approximately 30-35 pitches. “The velocity was good, the spin, all that stuff was great,” Skipper Dave told the collective media in his presser the following day. 
• Three days after his pen work simulating an inning break, Heaney threw a 50-pitch, three-inning side session on May 26 at Chase Field. The left-hander came out “feeling well,” according to Dodger insiders. 
• Heaney threw a two-inning simulated game on May 30, pitching against Kevin Pillar, Hanser Alberto, and two hitters borrowed from Single-A Rancho Cucamonga.
• The veteran lefty began his rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on June 4, throwing 39 pitches (29 strikes) in three innings while allowing a run on two hits and striking out five before working another inning in the bullpen. in two rehab starts
• Heaney got through 4 1/3 shutout innings, allowing two hits and striking out five in his second rehab start. With Tripn two rehab starts, Heaney has punched out 10 over 7 1/3 innings.

The southpaw needed at least one more rehab start to stretch him to the point he could work five innings or more in his return to active duty and the Dodgers rotation.

• Heaney didn't get through five frames but got through 4 1/3 shutout innings, allowing two hits while striking out five in his second rehab start with Triple-A Oklahoma City on June 11th.

The Dodgers decided that Heaney needed one more rehab outing to be to the point that he could be worked back into the rotation without reservations. 

• And the Dodgers sent him out on the 14th of June with Double-A Tulsa, where he tossed five shutout innings, striking out nine batters and throwing 77 pitches.  

 Heaney Over 5.5 Strikeouts +118