Play UNDER the TOTAL of 9 RUNS (total play is good to 8.5 runs)
4% confidence rating
List Pitchers: Pallante and Pivetta
HP Umpire: Jordan Baker is labeled and grades out as pitcher-friendly, but all things equal he is as neutral as a veteran of Major League Baseball wars as there are among active umpires with over 250 lifetime home plate assignments. Baker does fall into the category of a getaway day vet, a classification that goes to umpires that have a lower RPG and BB% on Sunday than a career average as a whole.
Weather: Fenway Park offers one of the cooler backdrops from the early MLB window with a forecast calling for below-average temps, first pitch in the low-60s with no precip expected, and gusty winds blowing in from left-centerfield between 5-10 mph.
Pivetta has been solid and almost automatic for six innings the first two months of the season. The veteran right-hander is the owner of a dynamic arsenal. Pivetta has worked his way to what he has strived for as a professional, being an innings eater with the ability to dominate in the right situation—after a three-start beginning to April that found him 0-3 with a 10.03 ERA, Pivetta has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball since.
Pallante was the Cardinals' only rookie on the Opening Day roster, and while a surprise to many, not much of one for me. I have been hard on the Cardinals pitching staff and that the team continues to hold onto old things when the team is better suited for the new. This applies because of the gold gloves behind the pitchers' mound.
Pallante tossed 5 1/3 scoreless innings in a 2-0 win before a sellout crowd of 45,009 at Busch Stadium in his debut. If you are looking for an accurate and honest measure of who Pallante is, take this at face value; manager Oliver Marmol said that the Cards likely would be nowhere near first place in the NL Central without Pallante's pitching versatility.
Palante had a different take on his debut, but one that works for baseball investors like me. "I still walked two guys [in the first inning], and it's unacceptable to go out there and not be ready," Pallante told the St Louis media.
After a swing and miss on a 94 mph fastball from Pallante in the third inning against the Mets this spring, Red's first baseman Joey Votto stepped out of the box, looked into the Cardinals dugout, embarrassing, and let out a ridiculous and semi-embarrising laugh. One who understands MLB egos knew at that point that Votta was impressed.
Afterward, Cincinnati manager David Bell compared Pallante to NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes.
The Cardinals and the veteran pitchers on this staff understand the value of Pallante, his versatility, and his ability to induce ground-ball. This season left-handers are hitting just .182 against Pallante.
UNDER the TOTAL of 9 RUNS