Recent Play Details

7:08 PM ET -- MLB

Game: (919) Chicago White Sox at (920) Houston Astros

Play: FIRST 5 INNINGS UNDER 4 (-105)

List Pitchers: Kopech & Javier

Bet Size: 5%

Line Parameters:
5% play at 4 or better
3% play at 3.5

My MLB totals plays are determined by a combination of statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games  (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

Trends/Angles/Thoughts:

-> Cristian Javier allowed 1 run or less in 3 of his 4 home starts this season.

-> Josh Harrison has 1 career at-bat against Javier. No other White Sox hitter has ever faced him (early advantage for Javier).

-> Michael Kopech allowed 1 run or less in 4 of his 5 road starts this season.

-> Kyle Tucker has 1 career at-bat against Kopech. No other Houston hitter has ever faced him (early advantage for Kopech).

-> Cory Blaser is a pitcher-friendly home plate umpire.

-> HOUSTON is 29-14 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

-> HOUSTON is 15-6 UNDER vs. teams outscored by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.

-> HOUSTON is 19-9 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or fewer hits/start this season.

-> HOUSTON is 20-10 UNDER as a favorite of -150 or more this season.