Recent Play Details

4% Take Baltimore – Tampa Bay OVER (#915-916) (action)

The Orioles bats are red hot right now, pounding out six runs or more five times in their last six ballgames, including a ten run outburst last night.  Manager Brandon Hyde, talking about his hot hitting lineup after the win in Toronto on Thursday: “We took really good at bats….I was really happy with the pressure we put on them and making (Kevin Gausman) come in the strike zone.” 

Rays starter Shane Baz has a boatload of potential, but he’s yet to finish the sixth inning in any big league start, he’s been hit hard in each of his last three outings dating back to last year, and the Rays bullpen behind him isn’t fresh after getting used extensively in high leverage situations against the Yankees all week. Baltimore’s Dean Kremer, too, has potential, but he’s not eating up innings at the big league level either and the O’s bullpen behind him is problematic, to put it mildly.  I’ll list ‘action’ here, trusting the lineups to hit. 

The Rays have consistently found production against the Orioles staff, scoring 6, 6, 6, 8 and 5 runs in the last five meetings against Baltimore this year; picking up right where they left off last year when they scored 9, 5, 10, 12, 9, 9, 10, 8, 7, 6, 4 and 12 runs in their dozen post-All Star Game meetings against the Orioles, cashing one Over after the next.  On a hot humid night in Baltimore, expect runs in bunches.  Take the OVER.

Line Parameter: 4% at 8.5 or lower, 3% at 9 or higher