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Blue Jays (7:07PM ET YES, RSN1, MLB.TV) – A busy Friday continues north of the border and I’ll go for another 5% MAX BET winner when the Toronto Blue Jays kick off a three game set with the New York Yankees at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. 

I get it, no one wants to bet against the Yankees on what is becoming a historic run but what’s being forgotten here is their opponent tonight (the Blue Jays) are also an elite team.  I have this as a huge letdown spot for the Yankees who just played three barnburners with the Rays and needed high leverage bullpen arms to close out all three. The Yankees had to travel without an off day so they come to Canada with a tired bullpen and what I consider to be the lesser starting pitcher.  The Blue Jays rested guys and didn’t have to use any top relievers yesterday when they were blown out by the Orioles, there’s no doubt in my mind the Jays were resetting themselves ahead of this series and I love this spot for the Blue Jays to grab a marquee home win here. 

The Blue Jays enter play 20-12 at the Rogers Centre this season and on a huge run of their own going 15-6 in their past 21 games.   Toronto has pounded lefties to the tune of a .281 team batting average against LHP this season and I expect the Blue Jays to get their hacks in against Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery tonight.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Montgomery comes in a little fatigued here, he tossed a season high 96 pitches against the Cubs last time out and the Blue Jays made him work hard when they faced him earlier this season tallying six hits and scoring two runs against Montgomery in five innings. This Blue Jays team has excellent lifetime numbers against Montgomery, in 2021 they hit .270 against him and in the shortened 2020 season where they saw him a bunch Jays hitters hit a whopping .316 off the Yankees southpaw.  In 2019 Montgomery made just two appearances at the big league level and one of them was a mauling at Rogers Centre where the Jays tagged him for three runs on four hits in just two innings.  The Yankees bullpen numbers are elite, but this might be a spot where the visitors need 3-4 innings out of their bullpen and fatigue from using their top bullpen arms extensively over the past few days could be the great equalizer here. 

Toronto counters here with Ross Stripling, he’s someone I’ve looked to fade more often than not in his career but he really has it working this season and of late as he hasn’t given up more than one earned run in an outing since May 7th.  In back to back starts Stripling has tossed 11 shutout innings against the Royals and Tigers (both wins) and I’m going to aim to ride that hot hand against the Yankees here. I think Stripling is making the most of this “second chance” he was demoted to the bullpen but was moved back to the starting rotation with Hyun-Jin Ryu going on the DL and has been lights out ever since.  As I mentioned earlier, I like this spot for the Blue Jays bullpen as the blowout loss to the Orioles allowed Toronto to rest all their top relief pitchers ahead of this game. Toronto is still one of the best teams in the American League, I feel like they are getting overlooked here and I think the Blue Jays will be out for blood in the series opener here.

If the Jays do hit Montgomery (which they have a ton) and the Yankees do fall behind I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Yankees go at it here with their back end relievers in an effort to reset their bullpen after maxing it out in the Rays series.  For as good as this Yankees team is they will still lose games and I just can’t see them sweeping another playoff caliber team in the Blue Jays on the road here.  The “spot” for the Blue Jays to get a win is here and it’s also a massive spot for the home team to attempt to set the tone for this weekend series.  The Yankees aren’t THAT much better than the Blue Jays, there are a number of things in play here that make the Blue Jays the more appealing side and I think we see the Jays bats go off tonight on their way to a big win.  Play on Blue Jays -105 for 5% (or 5 units)