1:35 PM ET -- MLB
Game: (957) Oakland Athletics at (958) Boston Red Sox
Play: OVER 9.5 (-118)
List Pitchers: Blackburn & Hill
Bet Size: 3%
Line Parameters:
3% play at 9.5 or better
2% play at 10 or 10.5
My MLB totals plays are determined by a combination of statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The play's size is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.
Trends/Angles/Thoughts:
-> Play Over - Road teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (OAKLAND) - team with a terrible OBP (<=.310) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP<=1.300) -AL, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games. 45-14 (76.3%) since 1997.
-> HILL is 12-2 OVER in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HILL 5.5, OPPONENT 5.3
-> BOSTON is 15-5 OVER in home games after scoring 9 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 5.3, OPPONENT 6.2
-> BOSTON is 11-3 OVER in home games after a win this season.
The average score was BOSTON 6.3, OPPONENT 6.0
-> Winds blowing out to left at 15 mph.