Recent Play Details

7:45 PM ET -- MLB

Game: (909) Pittsburgh Pirates at (910) St. Louis Cardinals

Play: OVER 8.5 (-125)

List Pitchers: Contreras & Flaherty

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters:
3% play at 9 or better
2% play at 9.5

My MLB totals plays are determined by a combination of statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games  (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

Trends/Angles/Thoughts:

-> Flaherty makes his season debut (shoulder injury), so I don't expect him to go deep into this game nor have his best stuff.

-> Contreras will be lucky to make it through 5 innings, so we should see a decent portion of a lousy Pirates bullpen.

-> The Cardinals pen isn't anything special either.

-> Dan Iassogna has been a decent OVER home plate umpire over the last 3 seasons.

-> GREAT hitting weather: Hot, humid, and winds blowing out to left at 10 mph.

-> 6 of 8 meetings this season have gone OVER, including 5 of 6 in St. Louis.