Recent Play Details

4:10 PM ET -- MLB

Game: (921) Oakland Athletics at (922) Cleveland Guardians

Play: FIRST 5 INNINGS UNDER 4 (-115)

List Pitchers: Montas & Plesac

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters:
3% play at 4 or better 
2% play at 3.5

My MLB totals plays are determined by a combination of statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games  (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

Trends/Angles/Thoughts:

-> Montas has allowed 1 or fewer runs in 2 of 3 road starts this season.

-> Plesac has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 4 of 5 home starts this season.

-> Jeremie Rehak is an extremely pitcher-friendly home plate umpire.

-> I like that Montas got drilled for 5 runs in 5 innings against these A's in Oakland on 4/29.  He should make the proper adjustments for this second meeting of the season.

-> Play Under - Road teams (OAKLAND) - after 2 straight games where their bullpen blew a save against an opponent after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. 34-9 (79%) since 1997.