Recent Play Details

9:45 PM ET -- MLB

Game: (909) Colorado Rockies at (910) San Francisco Giants

Play: OVER 7.5 (-120)

List Pitchers: Marquez & Rodon

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters:
3% play at 8 or better 
2% play at 8.5

My MLB totals plays are determined by a combination of statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games  (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

Trends/Angles/Thoughts:

-> COLORADO is 7-0 OVER as a road underdog of +150 or more this season. 
The average score was COLORADO 2.4, OPPONENT 8.0

-> SAN FRANCISCO is 15-4 OVER in home games vs. teams outscored by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. 
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 6.2, OPPONENT 4.9

-> German Marquez has been just plain awful this season.

-> Colorado's bullpen is horrible.

-> Colorado has hit lefties very well.

-> Carlos Rodon has pitched well this season, but this is Colorado's second time facing him in the last month (they should be able to adjust and have more success this time around).

-> 5 of 6 meetings this season have gone OVER, including all 3 games at Oracle Park.