Recent Play Details

Play MEMPHIS GRIZ +8 points ( spread play is good to +7 points)
2% confidence rating

I am going to keep this short and what I label as sweet. The word 'sweet" is dependent on whether you are a Curry and Warriors fan. If you are, then the following three paragraphs could well be offensive, disheartening, and even insulting, depending on your perspective ... but if you choose to be disappointed, angry, or even a feeling that I have not thought of, let me give you some friendly advice... get in line ... there are a lot of people, fan bases, and others I have pissed off, pissed on if you ask them. Indeed, I have also been wrong in my opt-ed work in past years. It isn't personal, and you shouldn't take it that way. Approach everything as a learning or informative session with me and I. What you learn is all about you. Note that "learn" is a sword that can be used against me or in my fight to be better than the bookmakers.

If you drank the Kool-aide or bought into the spiel that the Warriors were not fully vested in Thursday night's contest in Memphis and that the entire orbit started to collapse when the first unfortunate action dominoes into the second, followed by the third and so forth finding the Warriors down and out by halftime and at one point in the contest trailed by 50-plus points.

The 50-plus points, if you stake claim to being a zombie and are one of the walking dead, is an excuse that is not acceptable for trailing by 50-plus points in a series-deciding game. There is no arguing this with me. The outright sham of what Curry and company pulled off on Wednesday night should require that each player on the losing team in a game like the Wednesday night matchup in Memphis is unacceptable.

You will hear and read that Golden State knows they can win on their home wood. You will also read or listen to an ex-coach turned fired-coach doing their short-sighted color commentary for ESPN yesterday, today, and before and after tonight's matchup goes final. You will hear that the Warriors still have two games to earn the series victory. That they were not focused or ready to face the energy and emotion of the Griz in the elimination game.

I stake claim to bullshit.

The Warriors want the world to believe they took the night off. Golden State player personnel would like you to think they can turn the button on or off and reset themselves and be ready for the worst and the best of times.

Bullshit II.

In short, let's look at the market value of the Warriors. The books are not responsible for posting bad lines or wrong numbers, despite what you will hear from my beloved peers here at WagerTalk. Instead, the books install a number with the sole reason and hope they will receive equal amounts of money on both sides of the fence or the room.

The Warriors enter tonight's Game 6 with a 1-4 ATS mark. The Warriors enter this Game 6 tonight with a 3-2 series lead.

The Warriors have been outhustled and outplayed. The defense has been outscored and outplayed by 5.8 points per 100 possessions in combination with the offense.

Golden State has been contained offensively. The Warriors are averaging 106.5 points per 100 possessions on offense. The Griz has been a nightmarish matchup for the Warriors, and the metrics speak to the matchup and edges.

In Games 4 and 5, Memphis has defensively dominated the Warriors without Morant on the court. Since Morant’s injury in the late stages of Game 2, the Grizzlies have poured acid on the soles and bottoms of the players' Nike sneakers. And by doing so has left both teams without sound footing. 

Memphis has played defense like they know they can and have contained the Warriors to just 84.8 points per 100 possessions in half-court sets. They have been well-coached, and the Grizzlies staff have done an A+ job of making adjustments both between games and inside of fun, using the team size to their advantage. 

The loss of Porter, Iggy, and Payton Jr. is devastating for this Warriors' short-handed team.

It is damn easy to make a written statement that the Warriors will win tonight and do so with nothing more than the explanation of one's insight being that Curry and company are on home hardwood. 

It would be easy to talk about the statement and push the blame to an official, the play of one or more players from either team, and move on to the next series, but I can't and won't do that. 

The truth is that there is not a single variable that could convince me to push in on the Warriors tonight.  

The Grizzlies could well have won Game 1. However, stating that they could not and should not be saying a one-point victory was the end-game and that the final score isn't telling the entire game tale. 

Bullshit III

The Griz could have won Game 4, as well, in what went final as a three-point margin of defeat. Memphis led the entirety of Game 4 until 47 seconds remained on the game clock. They won by a margin in Game 5 and never showed an ounce of disrespect to the Warriors in the ready victory. 

I believed in the Game 5 just played out in Memphis that the Grizzlies would slow the game to a crawl and attempt to tire the Warriors with an extensive lineup that was physical and demanding on Wednesday night. 

While the Griz did go big for most of the game minutes, they did not grind or attempt to use clock. They attacked, attacked, and again and did so with their big unit and in transition possessions where the Griz couldn't keep pace, nor did they match up well. 

The Grizzlies are going to do their college best to emulate what they accomplished in Game 5 on Wednesday night. Unfortunately, curry and company are going to be caught up in trying to dictate pace when they should play hard, up and down the court for 48 minutes, and let the chips fall where they may. 

But they won't. 

The only way to play this game in my orbit is to take the points and push in on the Over. 

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES +8 points