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5% Big Ticket: Take Boston (#515)

My clients and I cashed a 5% Big Ticket winner supporting the Celtics on Monday in their crucial Game 4 win and cover at Milwaukee to even the series.  I’m expecting a similar result tonight.  Let me start with an excerpt from Monday’s write-up.  Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities:

“The Celtics 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven tries as underdogs (counting Game 3 as a push). They’re 22-12 SU off a loss this season, but that doesn’t tell the true story, because most of those losses came early. Since January, off a loss, the Celtics are 9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS; a team that hasn’t lost very often and has bounced back VERY well off a shoddy showing.  Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 7-18 ATS off a win at home; failing repeatedly all season in this role, including in their first round series against the Bulls. Look for the Celtics to take care of business with their backs against the wall; a team primed to respond well to adversity.”

In the Celtics three losses in this series, the Bucks had 50 second chance points.  In the two wins, they’ve allowed only 21 second chance points.  That’s the only real edge the Bucks have had.  And with Robert Williams potentially returning to the lineup for the Celtics this evening, even that edge might not be there moving forward for Milwaukee.  

Boston leads the series in field goal percentage, holding Milwaukee to 42% shooting for the series.  Boston has more made three pointers.  They have a higher three point shooting percentage than the Bucks do.  The Celtics lead in free throw points, in blocked shots and in assists – they’ve had better ball movement than Milwaukee. 

And Boston has fixed two key problems that were giving them issues early in the series.  The Celtics got destroyed points in the paint in the first three games of the series, but they’ve had a +2 edge in the last two games.  The Bucks were +30 in fast break points in the first three games of the series, Boston is +11 in the last two games.

I’m not a conspiracy guy, but it’s surely worth noting that head referee tonight, Scott Foster, has produced a 21-6 record in potential close-out games in favor of the team looking to extend the series.  The Celtics let Game 5 slip away late, but I’m expecting a STRONG bounceback here in Game 6. Big Ticket: Take the Celtics.

Line Parameter: 5% at pk or better, 4% if the Celtics become the favorite