Recent Play Details

Play MIAMI HEAT plus the points (+2) (spread play is good up to -1 point)
3% confidence rating

If you examine the pace and shot quality of the Sixers over the last three games you will find they have vastly underperformed in terms of shooting percentage. The same can be said in the dichotomy of the Heat and their shooting percentage from the 3-line. 

This Game 6 in Wells Fargo presents many of the same situations and circumstances as the first two events in the Sixers' home venue. 

The Heat are likely to be more mid-range driven in terms of shot selection in a game that offers them a chance to shelf Embiid and the 76ers. 

Jimmy Butler has shot 26-for-36 (72%) in the paint but has an effective field goal percentage of just 39.2% on shots from outside the paint.

James Harden, who put up career-low shooting numbers this year, had a monster Game 4 for Philly, and it may not be wise for bettors to expect the same to happen on the road.

The Heat, on the other hand, did not shoot the ball well at all in Games 3 and 4, according to our own Reed Wallach.

The Heat players were just 32-of-105 on uncontested field goal attempts in Game 3 and 4, at Wells Fargo.

While the Sixers shouldn't be expected to shoot 45 percent from distance tonight don't expect the Heat to throw up bricks as was the case in the first two games in Philadelphia.

The reported adjustments that Coach Spo has planned for tonight's meet at Wells Fargo is more transition possessions off misses and makes. Those transition possessions are designed to give Miami more shots in the first six-to-eight seconds of the shot clock.

The offensive adjustments by Miami have layers creating different looks from the Heat and just as important is keeping the Sixers honest in terms of crashing the offensive glass.

The Heat shot 13% of their shots in the regular season, and in the first round series vs Atlanta, in those first six seconds of the shot clock. In this series vs the Sixers, they are only taking 10 percent of their game shots in the first six seconds.  

Tonight's game plans, coaching adjustments, and positive regression in relationship with the offense from both teams tonight scream points.

All things equal positive regression is due for the Heat and their shooting woes suffered in Game 3 and Game 4. I expect the Heat to utilize the marksmanship of Herro and Robinson tonight and end the Sixers title hopes with a Miami victory, cover and in a matchup with a game point total of 220-plus tonight at Wells Fargo  

MIAMI PLUS THE 2-POINTS