Recent Play Details

Play WARRIORS and GRIZZLIES UNDER the TOTAL of 219.5 (total play is good down to 218)
4% confidence rating

Ja Morant is OUT for Game 5, perspective, and when the Grizzlies lone All-Star injured his knee in Game 3 the air came out of this series. I am not referencing the air of the will of the Griz. That remains, and it showed in their effort at Oracle in Game 4.

The only way that Memphis finds life in this series is by defending their butts off today and doing so with their extensive lineup. They have no chance of going small without Morant. This is especially the case when it is obvious that Desmond Bane continues to be limited by his ailing back.

I mentioned in the Game 4 event between these two Western powers that without Morant the health and well-being of this team rest on a young power forward that is not yet experienced enough to have this kind of pressure.

If you saw which of the Grizzlies received the shot in the final seconds of Game 4 on Golden Gate's home wood, it was Jaren Jackson Jr. He is, in my opinion, the prototypical big of the future. At nearly 7 feet, he can play the power 4 slot, a stretch, and authentic 5. And he is the player that will be featured in tonight's game in Memphis.

The Warriors have no answer for Jackson in terms of size. Golden State's biggest body available is Kevon Looney (6’9” 222 pounds) but placing these two in the same container in terms of capability would be a mistake and unfair to Looney.

Steven Adams has returned, and with no Morant, you saw coach Jenkins give Adams minutes he wasn't getting with Morant in the first five. Adams recorded a dub-dub in the loss on Monday. And you will see Jackson, who is 10th in the NBA in defensive rating and win shares, 1st in total blocks, on the court with Adams more than not tonight, forcing the Warriors to be all about the perimeter and a non-factor in the paint.

And it is unlikely that Jenkins and his Griz will be predictable tonight. They won't be strictly in drop coverage against the Warriors. Jackson has the talent and the ability to be the big man responsible for manning the middle and challenging the Warriors off of dribble penetration.

The primary defensive assignment for Jaren Jackson Jr has been Draymond Green, and there is a reason for the seemingly strange assignment. After all, Green doesn't want to shoot the ball; he acts as if he is allergic to shooting unless it is a putback or tip attempt. Green has fewer attempts per game this past season than any before it except for his rookie year.

Per 100 possessions, it was the 2nd fewest attempts aside from last season. Green is a point guard in more ways than most understand. He is the facilitator from his frontcourt position. The assignment for Jackson, this being Green, is a directive that all but dares Green to shoot the basketball. And until Green challenges Jackson and his lack of attention to Green on the offensive end of the floor when the former Spartan is 10 feet away from the rim or more Jackson will continue to sag off of Green and assist his mates in blitz coverage and challenging dribble penetration.

Jaren, responsible for forcing Green to be aggressive offensively as a scorer, has yet to be accepted.

Treating Draymond as invisible and a non-offensive threat allows Jackson to help hedge on screens for Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole.

Through four games, albeit three losses, the Griz's edge was two-fold. The first was Morant, and the second was the team size.

The Grizzlies possess the key to the trophy cabinet when Golden State attempts to match the Griz with their extensive lineup. It is something they have not done via rotation much in this series, which is why they are up 3-games-to-one.

The Griz will attempt to slow this game to a crawl and use the size of Kyle Anderson, and Jaren Jackson Jr., combined with a big backcourt of Bane and Brooks.

The Warriors are incapable of defending the frontcourt of the Memphis Grizzlies when it features the players above. But it leaves Memphis handicapped offensively. Shooting is a concern when Memphis goes big. Ball handling is not a strength unless Tyus Jones is at the point which makes the Griz smaller than they want to be -- as Jenkins knows his chance of winning tonight and stealing a game in Golden State this weekend is the only chance this group has to find Game 7 at FedEx, a situation where anything can happen and albeit slim, a chance, that Morant could return to active duty.  

The Grizzlies hung tough with the Warriors in Game 4. That recipe included defending the paint with veracity, getting second-chance points with offensive rebounds from Adams, and still being in touch with Curry and company in the final minutes of the fourth.

The Griz had the lead for almost the first 47 minutes of Game 4. It wasn't until Curry hit a pair of free throws with 40-something seconds left did the Warriors have the lead on Oracle wood, too.

The Griz will not have a chance of winning tonight in an up and down the court scorefest. They must go big and be physical in a grinding game of patience which results in a low-scoring affair, win or lose. 

WARRIORS and GRIZZLIES UNDER the TOTAL of 219.5 points