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Orioles (7:45PM ET BSMW, MASN2, MLB.TV) – The Tigers get it done in blowout fashion in the first game of their double header yesterday and that gives us three straight MLB winners into Wednesday.  Baseball has been great all season which has been the case the past three years and I’ll try to press this excellent run with a 5% MAX BET in MLB tonight when the Baltimore Orioles take on the St Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium in St Louis, Missouri. 

I was all over this Orioles run before it happened, we cashed a bunch with the Orioles last week and now Baltimore has won five of six and still no one wants to back this Orioles team.  St Louis, on the other hand, is one of the most overrated teams in baseball and has finally started to come back to Earth with three consecutive losses entering play today.  I don’t see a huge difference between these two teams, Baltimore will likely end up with a worse record but that’s only because the Orioles schedule is far more difficult than the Cardinals.  I have St Louis as a .500 team at best this season, the Cardinals are starting to trend in that direction, and I’ll jump back in with the Orioles in what is one of the sharpest angles in MLB wagering.

Without question, one of the sharpest MLB bets you can make is a road team on the +1.5-run line.  The reason for that is simple, you essentially get nine at bats while your opponent gets eight and has to beat you by margin (since the only way the Cardinals bat in the bottom of the 9th here is if they are tied or trailing). What makes it a difficult bet is the fact road +1.5’s are either way juiced up or terrible teams in big mismatches. It’s rare to find a “even” matchup at reasonable juice but the masses have been betting the Cardinals all season, they have also been betting against the Orioles, so because the books know the Cardinals will take money in this spot they can juice them up and, in turn, it creates a ton of value on Baltimore, especially on the run line. 

Let’s get to the matchup, the Cardinals give the ball to Miles Mikolas who is, without question, the better starting pitcher but I don’t think he makes the Cardinals this large of a favorite here.  Mikolas has been excellent to this point, he has a 1.53 ERA and 0.99 WHIP but he’s given up some offense in his past few starts and that could be a sign of some regression on the horizon as he’s finished with a 4.16 ERA and 4.23 ERA the past two seasons respectively.  The St Louis bullpen has experienced some regression as well, a week or so ago the Cardinals were leading the league in a number of bullpen metrics but have since fallen to 8th in ERA and 14th in bullpen WHIP. I said before the season I didn’t think the Cardinals improved at all and last year this Cardinals bullpen was middle of the pack so the regression does not surprise me and very well could continue. The Orioles aren’t a great offensive team but right now everyone in this Baltimore lineup is hitting.  Austin Hays has 12 hits in his last 21 at bats while Ryan Mountcastle has been an RBI machine over the past week.  Trey Mancini has been scorching hot since returning from injury and Cedric Mullins has completely turned his season around, capped off by a 4 for 5 performance last night.  Right now this Baltimore offense is hot and I think the Orioles can do enough offensively to be right in the mix to win here.

The Orioles give the ball to Spenser Watkins, he’s far from an elite starting pitcher but I see him as a decent option here since the Cardinals haven’t seen him and Baltimore is only really asking for 4-5 innings from the right hander here.  Watkins has been solid in the respect he hasn’t been blown up in any start and he hands the ball off to an Orioles bullpen that has given up just one earned run in their past 19 innings.  Baltimore’s bullpen is fresh after Kyle Bradish tossed a seven inning gem yesterday and, what I like the most about this Orioles relief unit, is it’s not just a couple guys carrying the team numbers as basically everyone has been good. Baltimore is 4th in the league in bullpen WAR trailing only the Yankees, Brewers and Braves, all of which have elite bullpens.  Right now Baltimore is red hot, we are getting a free run to work with and an extra at bat and when I add all of that up it warrants a 5% MAX BET.  Play on Orioles +1.5 (-110) for 5% (or 5 units)