Recent Play Details

Kiwoom Heroes (5:30AM ET Naver TV) – At this point I’m just at a loss with NC as the Dinos lose again and this time fail to cover the +1.5.  NC could very well win tomorrow but I don’t like the spot at all so I’m going to switch gears and target a side that nearly made my card yesterday when the Kiwoom Heroes take on the Doosan Bears in the second game of a three game set ant the Gocheok Sky Dome in Seoul, South Korea. 

One positive from yesterday is I didn’t add Kiwoom to my client card, I strongly considered it and spoke about it on Asian Baseball Today but held off and that proved to be a smart decision as the Heroes were blown out by Doosan 9-0 on their home field.  I’ve been critical of Kiwoom so far this season, the Heroes have one of the worst lineups in KBO on paper but they seem to come up with the timely hit more often than not and have been more competent scoring runs than a number of other teams. Kiwoom’s pitching is solid, the bullpen is far better than I ever imagined it could be without Sang-Woo Cho and the Heroes have been able to ride solid pitching and defense to a 17-16 record so far this season.  I don’t think Kiwoom will be much better than a .500 team this season but I think the Heroes will hover around the .500 mark and, off of three consecutive losses, this looks like a spot where Kiwoom bounces back for a win.  Doosan is a team I expect to trend back toward .500, the Bears don’t hit for power at all and their starting pitching has been suspect all season. Doosan is extremely well coached and always seems to find a way to overachieve but at some point it comes down to talent and I see a talent gap, specifically in pitching, here.  Kiwoom should be embarrassed at yesterdays collapse but in the process the Heroes were able to save their better bullpen arms and this game lines up nicely for a Kiwoom win.

Kiwoom gives the ball to Won-Tae Choi who was inexplicably sent down the Futures League to “work on his mechanics”.  That right there is a bold-faced lie, there was nothing wrong with Choi’s mechanics as he has a 1.96 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the season so it had to be disciplinary and now he’s back making the start here.  Whatever Choi did he’s now paid his debt to the team and I expect him to get right back to being one of the more dominant domestic pitchers in this league. Choi has yet to give up more than two earned runs in any start this season, his biggest issue has been failure to work deep but as long as Choi is keeping runs off the board he puts us in a great spot here. Behind Choi is a Kiwoom bullpen that enters play with a 3.11 ERA and has been tremendous all season.  Kiwoom saved their better relievers in a blowout yesterday and I expect the pitching to stack up nicely for the Heroes here. 

Doosan counters with Seung-Yong Choi, the 20 year old started the season in the bullpen where he’s been the majority of his career to this point but had success and my guess is Doosan wants to try him out as a starter to eventually move Young-Ha Lee out of the starting rotation.  The jury is still out on Choi as a SP, he tossed five shutout innings in his first start of the season against SSG but was hit hard by LG across four innings last time out.  Last year Choi had a respectable 3.93 ERA but he was lucky to stay under 4.00 with a horrific 1.64 WHIP.  Choi is giving up less baserunners this year but most of those numbers have been accumulated in the bullpen and I’m just not confident in Choi limiting traffic on the base paths as a starter just yet.  Kiwoom handed Choi his worst relief outing of the season earlier this year tagging him for two runs on three hits in a third of an inning.  Doosan and Kiwoom are equals when it comes to the bullpen so if we call that a wash (though I think it’s a better spot for Kiwoom relievers) I still think we end up with a sizeable Kiwoom advantage here.

In the end just a good spot for a Kiwoom team that has been solid at home the past few seasons.  Doosan just doesn’t match up well in this spot and I’ll back the Heroes as a small favorite in a game they should win.  Play on Kiwoom Heroes -120 for 4% (or 4 units)