Recent Play Details

3% Take Philadelphia (#501)

It happens about once per playoffs, on average – a team rallying back from an 0-2 deficit to win the series.  I think Philly is very ‘live’ to accomplish that relatively rare feat; a series where the momentum has clearly shifted.  Let me start with an extended excerpt from my pro-Sixers write-up from Game 4:

“Miami opened the series with a pair of home wins when Joel Embiid was out for the 76ers.  Not only was Embiid out – the likely MVP of the NBA this season -- but the 76ers also were ice cold from three point range in both losses; a combined 14-64 in those two contests.  That was then, this is now. The Sixers got Embiid back on the floor for Game 3.  All of a sudden, their floor spacing opened up and the three pointers started to fall: 16-33 from beyond the arc.  All of a sudden, with Embiid on the floor, Philly was able to dominate the glass after getting outrebounded by double digits in each of the first two games.  The Sixers were able to withstand a ‘Jimmy Butler goes nuts’ outing – 33 points and 9 boards on Friday Night in the loss. And Bam Adebayo finished with nine points and three rebounds; unable to hang with Embiid on either end of the court. These matchup problems aren’t going away for Miami.  And we’ve yet to see a ‘James Harden goes off’ game here in this series – gotta think one is coming in the not too distant future.  Philly knows their championship dreams rely on winning tonight.  Embiid: “We have a good chance to win it all. We’ve (just) got to stay healthy.” 

Bam Adebayo can’t stop Joel Embiid, and the 76ers dominated the glass in both games with Embiid healthy. And with Embiid clogging up the low post, all of sudden Miami isn’t getting the same kind of good looks they were getting from the perimeter in the first two games; hitting just seven three pointers in each of the last two games.  The Heat are built on defense, rebounding and three point shooting.  All three of those areas are a major concern moving forward against Philly.

James Harden had his best game of the playoffs in the Game 4 victory, another potential major matchup problem for the Heat moving forward.  His quote: “We’re getting more confident as the series goes on……having Joel and having our full team, we kind of know what to expect.  We know where to execute on both sides of the ball.”  I concur.  Take the 76ers.

Line Parameter: 3% at +2 or higher, 2% at +1.5 or lower