Recent Play Details

5% Big Ticket: Take Boston (#581)

The Bucks don’t have a better game in them than the one they just played; stealing a two point win against the Celtics in Game 3.  Giannis was unstoppable for extended stretches, finishing 15-21 from two point range; two assists shy of a 42 point triple double.  Jrue Holiday was hitting.  Pat Connaughton was hitting.  Bobby Portis had a big impact. 

Meanwhile, Jayson Tatum was ice cold for the Celtics (just 4-19 from the floor); Marcus Smart hit only one shot for the whole game and Boston came out after halftime and laid a big egg in the third quarter.  The end result was the Celtics biggest deficit of the postseason, which equated to their fourth quarter rally falling just short.

Let me start with this – I think the Celtics are the better of these two teams without All Star Khris Middleton on the floor for Milwaukee.  I’m expecting bounceback games from Tatum – a superstar, ready to take that next step into the stratosphere this postseason.  I’m expecting a bounceback game from Smart on both ends of the floor; a Holiday stopper.  Grant Williams has shown the ability to defend Giannis as well as anybody in the league. Al Horford has been revitalized here in the postseason; an elite veteran presence.  Big man Robert Williams has outplayed Brook Lopez for extended stretches in this series.  Jaylen Brown is primed to hit more than one three pointer here. 

It's not just individual players who are primed to play better for the Celtics in Game 4.  Their team defense is primed to be better as well. After forcing 31 Bucks turnovers in the first two games, Boston is primed to force more than the ten they notched in Game 3.  Unlike Milwaukee, the Celtics have a MUCH better game in them then the one we just saw.

The Celtics 5-0-1 ATS in their last six tries as underdogs (counting Game 3 as a push).  They’re 21-12 SU off a loss this season, but that doesn’t tell the true story, because most of those losses came early.  Since January, off a loss, the Celtics are 8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS; a team that hasn’t lost very often and has bounced back VERY well off a shoddy showing.  Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 7-17 ATS off a win at home; failing repeatedly all season in this role, including in their first round series against the Bulls. Look for the Celtics to take care of business with their backs against the wall; a team primed to respond well to adversity.  Big Ticket: Take the Celtics.

Line Parameter: 5% at pk or better, 4% if the Celtics become the favorite