Recent Play Details

9:40 PM ET -- MLB

Game: (909) Colorado Rockies at (910) Arizona Diamondbacks

Play: OVER 8.5 (-120)

List Pitchers: Kuhl & Kelly

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters:
3% play at 8.5 or better 
2% play at 9

My MLB totals plays are determined by a combination of statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games  (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

Some key trends/angles:

-> COLORADO is 16-3 OVER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better over the last 2 seasons. 
The average score was COLORADO 4.8, OPPONENT 6.9

-> ARIZONA is 13-3 OVER in home games vs. a team with a bad bullpen whose ERA is 4.70 or worse over the last 2 seasons. 
The average score was ARIZONA 6.0, OPPONENT 5.7

-> KUHL is 12-3 OVER when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) 
The average score was KUHL 4.3, OPPONENT 6.7

-> KUHL is 11-2 OVER against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) 
The average score was KUHL 4.5, OPPONENT 5.4

-> ARIZONA is 17-5 OVER after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. 
The average score was ARIZONA 4.9, OPPONENT 6.8