Recent Play Details

Marlins (9:40PM ET BSSD, BSFL, MLB.TV) – Kia gets it done in a blowout to give us a Wednesday night winner and we settle for a split for the day.  MLB was a pass on Wednesday but I’ve hit 3 of my last 4, I’m right up around a 60% strike rate on the bases this season and I’ll head out west for my only play on Thursday when the San Diego Padres open up a four game set with the Miami Marlins at Petco Park in San Diego, California. 

Horrific scheduling spot for San Diego here, the Padres just finished a road trip where they played at Reds, at Pirates and at Guardians which concluded with a double header yesterday in Cleveland.  The Padres returned to San Diego after yesterday’s double and, with no off day, will open a home series here with the Marlins.  Miami should enjoy the change of scenery, after seven straight wins the Marlins lost a home finale against the Mariners and were inexplicably swept by the Diamondbacks the past three days.  Miami travels here with no off day as well but I think the Marlins were ready to get out of town for the week and the pitching sets up far better for the Marlins here.  Miami has the better starter and the fresher bullpen, the Marlins are also in desperate need of a win coming off of four straight losses and I expect the Marlins to get that win here. 

Miami gives the ball to Jesus Luzardo, he enters play with a 3.10 ERA and 1.08 WHIP and I still firmly believe Luzardo could be one of the best pitchers in the majors when it’s all said and done this season.  Luzardo bounced back from a rare bad outing against the Cardinals which back to back games where he gave up just one earned run and got the win and I think this sets up as a great spot for Luzardo against a Padres lineup that hasn’t seen a ton of him.  San Diego has played as easy of a schedule as you will find so far in MLB, 11 of the Padres 13 wins have come over the Reds, Diamondbacks and Pirates while the Padres have won just five or their other 11 games.  San Diego’s bullpen had to pull double duty in the double header yesterday and they were blown up in the night cap which means the Padres roll into today without their full complement of relievers.  Miami’s starting pitching has been to blame for their recent losing streak but Luzardo hasn’t contributed to that and the Marlins bullpen is in far better shape entering play here.  I expect another strong 5-6 inning effort from Luzardo, Miami has their better relievers available and I think the Marlins bullpen is good enough to see out a win here.

San Diego gives the ball to Nick Martinez, I’m shocked he’s back in the big leagues after a few years in Japan and even more shocked that he’s had something that’s resembled success to this point.  Martinez has a 4.12 ERA which is respectable but, in my opinion, his WHIP tells the real story at a disastrous 1.68 entering play tonight.  Martinez is lucky his numbers aren’t far worse and he’s gotten into big trouble the second time through a batting order which is why he hasn’t pitched past the fifth inning in any start so far this season.  Even if Martinez is able to turn in a respectable five innings, which he’s been able to do, the Padres still need to piece the rest of the game together with a very fatigued bullpen.  San Diego had a highly touted bullpen entering the season but the Padres relief unit has been awful so far this season with a 4.27 WHIP and would likely be worse had the Padres played a tougher schedule to this point.  This San Diego team is in for a rude awakening once they start playing capable teams and I think it starts against the very capable Marlins tonight. 

The fact the Marlins opened as an underdog here is laughable and even -105 represents tremendous value on Luzardo and the visitors.  San Diego, at some point this season, might be better than the Marlins but I don’t think that’s the case now and the only reason the records suggest that is San Diego has played a pathetic schedule to this point.  Luzardo is enough to get me interested in the Marlins here, the scheduling dynamics are what makes this a no brainer and I’ll back the visitors to snap their losing streak and get it done in the Gaslight District tonight.  Play on Marlins -105 for 4% (or 4 units)