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Kia Tigers (1AM ET Naver TV) – KT played one of their worst games of the season and it’s back to the drawing board for a round of random midweek KBO day games which means LATE NIGHT KBO action for us on a Wednesday.  KBO has been excellent for us yet again this season at 18-12 for 60% winners and a +19.05% bankroll gain so far in 2022 and I’ll look to get back in the win column when the Kia Tigers take on the Kiwoom Heroes in the rubber match of a three game set at Gwangju-Kia Champions Field in Gwangju, South Korea.

Huge pitching disparity here in favor of Kia that I think is way understated in the market based on Kiwoom overachieving to this point and Kia’s recent form.  Kia snapped a six game losing streak yesterday on a bases loaded walk off hit batter and I think that gives the Tigers the confidence needed to come out and take a home series here.  I’m still not buying this Kiwoom team, the Heroes are 16-12 with a very average roster and I expect Kiwoom to trend back toward .500 as the season wears on.  Kia got leadoff hitter Chan-Ho Park back earlier this week which is a massive boost to the Tigers lineup and I expect a breakout from Kia offensively on their way to a win here. 

Kia gives the ball to Eui-Lee Lee, he’s a 19 year old lefty that burst onto the scene as a rookie last season and has as bright of a future as anyone in this league.  Lee is an absolute stud, in 24 career starts he has a 3.53 ERA and 1.31 WHIP and he’s a guy that I fully expect to pitch his way to MLB in a few years.  Lee got off to a slow start in his sophomore campaign but has been excellent in his last three starts including his best effort of 2022 last time out firing seven innings of three hit one run ball against Samsung.  Lee is averaging about a strikeout per inning and Kiwoom struggles mightily against left-handed pitching.  Kia’s bullpen has been hot and cold this season but it’s been very streaking for Tigers relievers and they were great yesterday for the first time in a week so I’ll back a follow up good outing here.  Kia is in a good spot top to bottom, the Tigers now have some momentum and I think they ride a nice start from Lee to another win here.

Kiwoom counters with Seon-Gi Kim, a reliever who is going to make a spot start for the Heroes in this series finale.  Kim didn’t start the season with the “big league” club, he made his first appearance in a long relief role last week and I’m just not buying this 30 year old fringe KBO arm having success as a starter here.  Kim was abysmal last season, he posted a 6.52 ERA and 1.55 WHIP and, if you look at his career numbers, it looks like his breakout effort in the Kiwoom bullpen in 2020 is a complete anomaly.  It's possible Kiwoom isn’t relying on Kim to go deep but that means the Heroes will be deep into what is a banged up and short handed bullpen at present.  Kiwoom only got five innings out of Tyler Eppler yesterday so, not only is the Kiwoom bullpen shorthanded, they have been used extensively of late.  Unless Kim is great here, which I can’t see happening, this might be a day where Kiwoom decides to roll with their “B” relievers to reset their rotation into a huge weekend series with SSG and should leave this one right there for the taking for Kia.

In the end this is just a great spot for Kia on their home field with BY FAR the better starting pitcher at a favorable price.  Kia profiles as a “BET ON” for me now that Park is back while Kiwoom has been fade for me virtually all season to this point.  I’m going to bet on some positive regression for the Kia bullpen after a down week and that should all but seal victory for the Tigers here. Play on Kia Tigers -120 for 4% (or 4 units)