Recent Play Details

KT Wiz (5:30AM ET Naver TV) – We get it done in a big way on Tuesday morning with a KBO sweep and we are now at 30-20 (60%) for a +27.5% bankroll gain across all bases.  KBO has hit at over a 60% clip since the beginning of last season, we are rolling so far in 2022 and I’ll look to keep it going on Wednesday morning when we go back to the well with the KT Wiz when they take on the Lotte Giants in the second game of a three game set at Suwon KT Wiz Park in Suwon, South Korea. 

I get that KT got off to a slow start and has a couple key guys out but I think the Wiz are massively undervalued because of it.  KT are the defending champions in KBO, they won last year with excellent pitching, defense and timely hitting and, while their offense has taken a hit, I still think KT has enough offense to be considered one of the top teams in KBO again this season.  At this point I don’t think Baek-Ho Kang being out matters because he’s been out since before the season started and, while the Henry Ramos injury hurts, he was hitting just .250 in the 18 games he played this season.  For a team that keeps getting tabbed as a poor offensive team (because they are missing their two biggest bats), KT has performed admirably on offense in spite of that up to third in the KBO with a .248 team batting average and third in the league with 17 home runs.  KT’s struggles can actually be attributed to their pitching, where they have had to deal with the loss of William Cuevas, but the Wiz have also been insanely unlucky with one of the highest BABIP’s in the league.  KT’s pitching is far better than the numbers they have put up so far this season, the Wiz have already started some positive regression in that department and, as long as KT doesn’t run into any other injuries, they should continue to see better results from both SP’s and RP’s.  I have KT as a better team than Lotte, I think the pitching is about even here so a free run to work with for the Wiz at home is an absolute bargain here. 

A big reason Lotte is such a big favorite here is the perceived starting pitching advantage as the Giants send Se-Woong Park to the mound for the start. I love Park, we cashed with him a ton last season and the 26 year old RHP has been one of the better domestic starters in the league for a couple years now but I don’t think he’s invincible and expect KT to get to him at some point here.  KT hasn’t seen Park yet this season but the Wiz faced him a couple times toward the end of last year and knocked him around for eight runs on 16 hits in 12 innings the final two times they saw him in 2021.  The confidence of KT’s offense has to be sky high after getting to Charlie Barnes yesterday and that game turned into a big enough blowout where the Wiz were able to see out the remainder of the game without destroying their top bullpen arms.  I think KT’s 4.42 bullpen ERA is deceiving, the Wiz bullpen has been short handed since the Cuevas injury so that’s played a part but KT’s bullpen also leads the league with the highest BABIP.  That statistic is a good measure of luck which means KT’s relievers have had some bad luck so far but, as is usually the case when it comes to being lucky/unlucky, that’s cyclical.  KT got blown out on Sunday and had the off day on Monday so the bullpen stacks up nicely even with the Wiz being off a win here. 

I also see some positive regression for KT starter Je-Seong Bae who gets the ball to start off for the Wiz here.  I had Bae tabbed as a potential breakout starter this season but that simply hasn’t been the case to this point as Bae enters play with a 4.88 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.  Lotte absolutely hammered Bae earlier this season but I think Bae is good enough to take what he learned from that start and make adjustments.  KT didn’t put Bae as far as they usually do in his last start and it turned into one of this better efforts of the season going six strong innings and giving up just three runs in a no decision against Kia.  I expect Bae to be better from this point forward and, because KT does have a relatively fresh bullpen for this game, I don’t think they leave Bae out there if he gets in trouble in the 5th or 6th inning.  Bae has been solid the first time through the order and if he’s able to navigate the Lotte lineup early I expect Bae to leave this one with KT in position to win. 

Finally, I also think Lotte has overachieved as a team to this point which has the Giants overrated against an underrated KT team.  Lotte is better than I expected but I still think this Giants team trends back toward .500 as the season wears on.  KT with a free run is a bargain and I’ll grab it in a game I think KT is more than capable of winning.  Play on KT Wiz +1.5 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)