Recent Play Details

3% Take Memphis (#534)

I’m going to be playing some ‘zig-zag’ theory in the second round of the NBA Playoffs.  Zig-zag (betting ON the team that lost their previous playoff game in their next contest) doesn’t work when we bet it blindly in the postseason, but in series that we expect to be competitive – like this one – it’s a positive expectation wager.

Golden State isn’t likely to play a whole lot better in Game 2 than they did in Game 1.  They shot 48% from the floor, won the battle of the boards – including 16 key offensive rebounds, and held the Grizzlies scoreless in the final 1:15 of a tight game thanks to some uncharacteristic breakdowns on both ends of the floor.  The urgency isn’t there for Golden State tonight – they’ve already gained homecourt edge with that Game 1 victory.  Meanwhile, Memphis off a loss since the All Star Break?  How about 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS; moneywinners in this role.

There’s no panic for Memphis, who lost Game 1 at home against the Grizzlies in the first round, then rallied back to dominate Game 2; a 28 point victory that was over by halftime. Ja Morant following his missed lay-up at the buzzer that would have given the Grizzlies the ‘W’ on Sunday: “I missed a layup I normally make all the time.  Onto the next one.”  Head coach Taylor Jenkins, following the Game 1 loss: “Do what we’ve done all season. Rest.  Recover.  Watch the film.  Get better and come out and compete hard.” 

Don’t be surprised if the Warriors lack some intensity here with Draymond Green back on the floor, after his ejection sparked their Game 1 rally.  I’m expecting Memphis to shoot better than 43% from the floor this evening, with key contributors Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks and Ty Jones all coming off poor shooting efforts (a combined 7-27 from the floor from a trio that has averaged better than 44 points per game here in the playoffs.  I personally took the +2, giving us a little bit of leeway if the Grizz falter late, but I wouldn’t argue with anyone who chose to play the Grizzlies to win SU on the moneyline.  Take the Grizzlies.

Line Parameter: 3% at +1 or higher, 2% at pk or if the Grizz go off as the favorite