Recent Play Details

7:07 PM ET -- MLB

Game: (965) NY Yankees at (966) Toronto Blue Jays

Play: UNDER 7.5 (-105)

List Pitchers: Taillon & Manoah

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters:
3% play at 7.5 or better 
2% play at 7

My MLB totals plays are determined by a combination of statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games  (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

Some key trends/angles:

-> RON KULPA is a very pitcher-friendly home plate umpire.

-> The UNDER has cashed in 3 of Taillon's 4 starts this season.

-> The UNDER has cashed in all 4 of Manoah's starts this season.

-> TORONTO is 22-10 UNDER after a loss by 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons.

-> NY YANKEES are 23-11 UNDER in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons.

-> TORONTO is 15-5 UNDER vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage of .330 or worse this season.