Recent Play Details

3% Take Phoenix – Dallas UNDER (#523-524)

There will be precious few transition buckets in Game 1 of this series; two teams that simply don’t allow opponent fast breaks very often.  Both Dallas and Phoenix are intent upon getting back on defense as opposed to pounding the offensive glass.  And both squads have been outstanding all year at defending without fouls.  This game is not likely to be a foul-fest – it’s bad news for Under bettors when a bevy of points get scored at the free throw line.

From a pace standpoint, the Mavs played at the slowest pace of any team still standing here in the postseason in their first round series against Utah.  But even those numbers are misleading, because Luka Doncic missed the first two games of the series, and the Jazz weren’t prepared for him when he came back in Game 3.  That resulted in a 2-1 mark to the Over in the first three games of that series. Once Luka was back on the floor and the Jazz were acclimated, the final three games of that series finished with 199, 179 and 194 combined points, 3-0 to the UNDER; all with room to spare.

Phoenix played uptempo New Orleans in Round 1, but the Suns were able to play at their preferred pace (slower).  In fact, the Suns – Pelicans pace rating was lower than any team had in the NBA for the full season; not a team that wants to get out and run on every possession.  Those pace ratings were WAAAY down from their regular season numbers, even against a faster paced foe.  Dallas was the single slowest paced team in the league during the regular season AND so far here in the playoffs.  Phoenix is coming off a rare 60% shooting game in the NBA (and 94% from the free throw line) to close out the Pelicans, not primed to shoot anywhere near that well this evening.  Expect a slow pace and plenty of missed shots in what is primed to be a defensive struggle to open the series.  Take the UNDER.

Line Parameter: 3% at 212 or higher, 2% at 211.5 or lower