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Dave Cokin
  • Event: (7) New York Islanders at (8) Tampa Bay Lightning
    Sport/League: NHL
    Date/Time: September 15, 2020 8PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (+145)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Loss

    Not much question at this point about the better team, it's Tampa Bay. The Lightning are now in position to close things out and unless the Islanders play at their absolute peak, this series should end tonight. I normally go the -1 route when I like a good sized favorite, as that reduces my liability if my side loses the game, and gets me out even if they win by just one goal. But in an elimination situation such as this, I think taking the Puck Line gamble makes sense. If the Islanders are down in the third period, they'll have to get desperate and that means playing wide open, which is not their preferred style. It also means the goalie gets pulled earlier, which increases the chances of an empty net goal. I do expect a huge early effort by the Isles, but I just can't see them staying with TB for 60 minutes. So I'm going to take my shot with the good sized plus money on the Lightning -1.5.