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Dave Cokin
  • Event: (429) Tulane at (430) South Alabama
    Sport/League: CFB
    Date/Time: September 12, 2020 7PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Tulane -8.0 (-110)
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Loss

    The popular concept in the early going makes some sense. That is, teams with a game under their belts opposing teams playing their first game have more of an advantage than in most seasons. It makes sense for obvious reasons, with practices being disrupted due to outside circumstances. In this instance, that thought process is leading bettors to believe South Alabama is the right side here. The Jaguars not only have the game under their belts angle, they also won outright as a double digit dog. But that's the rub for me. I was on South Alabama last week as they beat Southern Miss. But that win was more about the Golden Eagles being completely unprepared than it was the Jaguars suddenly being a good football team. In fact, I can argue that South Alabama should have won even easier than they did as Southern Miss was clearly not ready to play football. As for Tulane, everything I'm reading says they're as well prepared as they can rightfully expect to be. I'm a little iffy about their QB, they lost a very good running back to a season ending injury and they haven't played a game yet. But I'm a big Willie Fritz fan, I really like the addition of six grad transfers who bring solid experience to the team, and they are simply the considerably more talented entry here. My power ratings make the Green Wave -12 and I kind of like the fact the betting public is excited about the home dog here. I don't think it's a blowout but at single digits, I'm pretty comfortable with backing Tulane minus the spot.

    As usual, I released this at the optimum line. That's a big part of my job, to get my plays out when the price is most right. I'd lower this to a 2% play with line now up to -10.5 or -11.

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