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Kyle Anthony
  • Event: (24129) Randy Brown at (24130) Vicente Luque
    Sport/League: MMA
    Date/Time: August 2, 2020 1AM EDT
    Play: 3% – Randy Brown +155
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Loss

    In a main card bout Vicente Luque sqaures off against Randy Brown....

    This bout should be one of the more entertaining fights of the night. Vicente Luque is one heck of a durable fighter with a fighting style of "take a punch to give a punch". When he faced Mike Perry whom also has that style, it led to an intense fight with both men seeking the KO. Perry has power but lacks technically as well as low fight IQ. With both guys swinging for the fences it allowed many counter punching opportunities. Going into round 3, it was close but Luque closed out round 3 breaking Perry's nose and almost finishing the fight. Luque won via decision. Next he faced top level kick boxer Stephen Thompson in which the brawling style of Luque was completely exposed. Early Vicente pushed forward head down throwing hooks, but once Thompson got his timing down he picked Luque apart. The movement and arsonal of weapons Thompson has was just to much. In round 3 Luque was dropped multiple times as Thompson went on to a dominating decision win. Recently he faced fellow brawler Nico Price who's hardly ever in a boring fight. Early Niko looked great out striking Vicente causing damage. Even into round 2 Niko landed heavy shots putting Luque up against the fence. The pressure worked against Luque up until he landed one big shot buckling Niko changing the fight. Heading into round 3 Niko's solid striking was on display again and appeared he could pull out the victory, but a bad cut over Niko's eye after ground and pound had the fight called via doctor stoppage. 

    Randy Brown is a long rangy fighter who continues to elevate fight after fight. I was very impressed with Brown's ability over the last 2 fights. In his fight against highly durable Bryan Barberena, Brown looked comfortable and relaxed. His striking was crisp mixing up level changing kicks and combinations. Brown overwhelmed Barberena with volume and pressure getting the knockout win in round 3. Most recently he faced Warlley Alves showing he's not just a striker. Early in round 1 Brown landed well with good footwork and using angles getting off his offense. Round 2 Brown was able to work his grappling sinking in a triangle choke ending the fight.

    At the current price of +155 the market is telling us Brown has an implied probability of 39% chance to win. I'd absolutely cap Brown's chances of winning much higher. This line provides a lot of value to wager. Luque is a fan favorite for his fight of the night type cage apperances always brawling and never boring. For the most part in his career he'll keep a similar style offense, pressure moving forward throwing heavy shots. Against guys like Mike Perry, Bryan Barberena, Niko Price, and Chad Liprise that may work...those are the perfect dance partners for Luque's style. Against Brown, he provides a different style. Not only could Brown take this to the ground using his grappling ability, but mixing up his footwork and rangy punches will be tough for Luque to counter. Using his 3 inch reach with good cardio and increasing striking ability, I like Brown to use his front kick keeping space and outworking Luque to a win.

    Play: Randy Brown +155