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Bryan Leonard
  • Event: (953) Detroit Tigers at (954) Cincinnati Reds
    Sport/League: MLB
    Date/Time: July 24, 2020 6PM EDT
    Play: 3% – Cincinnati Reds -180
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Win

    954 Detroit at Cincinnati

    The Reds have a huge offensive edge in this contest. The league average team will have a wRC+ of 900, as the average player will post a 100 wRC+. The starting lineup for the Tigers here against a righty is 801, while the Reds vs a lefty with this lineup will be 1128. That's a whopping 36% better with every batter in the lineup. Cincinnati putting in Matt Davidson is a huge edge over the overnight lines as he smashes lefties to the tune of a 123 wRC+ the past three seasons. That makes only one Reds batter less than league average against lefties. From a starting pitcher standpoint we also rate the Reds to have a 25% ERA+ advantage. Despite Cincinnati being a sizable favorite, this line is simply too cheap to not back the Reds.

    PLAY CINCINNATI

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