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  • Event: (24361) J Phillips at (24362) K Chimaev
    Sport/League: MMA
    Date/Time: July 15, 2020 9PM EDT
    Play: 4% – Chimaev wins by TKO (-188)
    Play Rating: 4%
    Result: Win

    PLAY is on Khamzat Chimaev to win by TKO -188
    4% play rating

    John Phillips and Khamzat Chimaev square off in a middleweight bout ---- UFC on ESPN 13 -- tonight from Fight Island.

    John Phillips: +250
    Khamzat Chimaev: -335

    A middleweight bout that finds the undercard with more twists and turns than one could possibly make up. The Welshman earned his first significant payday in his last octagon affair. John Phillips (22-9) was defeated in his first three UFC bouts losing to Charles Byrd, Kevin Holland, and Jack Marshman. Phillips' effortless right-hand, his signature power, earned him a KO in a mere 17 seconds over Alen Amedovski.

    Phillips enters the octagon as a large underdog in the final fight of the preliminary card of UFC on ESPN 13 tonight from Fight Island on ESPN+.

    Note that the style of "The Wrecking Machine” won't be mistaken for any of the fighters in the lighter weight classifications. In Phillips' first three fights he delivers just over 2.50 strikes per minute while receiving over 5.00. in addition he has successfully defended just 14% of the takedown attempts he's faced.

    Chimaev is 6-0 as an MMA fighter and has yet to see the third round. The undefeated Chimaev has recorded three KO’s and three submissions.

    Chimaev (6-0) entered the world of MMA much more prepared than did Phillips. Chimaev, a training partner of Alexander Gustafsson and other UFC veterans at Allstars Training Center, barely broke a sweat in this first half-dozen bouts, and tonight's fight versus Phillips isn't likely to be much different than the first six victories.

    If there is a speed bump that Chimaev would be wise to approach with caution it is giving Phillips an opportunity to use his heavier frame and power as Chimaev is stepping up in weight class. Especially considering the power that Phillips wields.

    Of Phillips 22 wins 19 have come by TKO.

    The winning formula for Chimaev is to register an early takedown of Phillips and take away his stand-up power punch. Chimaev has yet to see the third round of any UFC affair and taking Phillips to the mat will all but end any chance of a Welshman upset.

    I considered investing in the Under 2.5 rounds in this bout – "but way to much juice"

    Off the record, I have sprinkled a small amount of paper on Chimaev to win in Round 2 +450

    Rather than lay the wood (-300+ at all Vegas and Offshore sportsbook portals) I am recommending that you push-in on the favorite as follows

    Chimaev earns the win by TKO -188