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Kyle Anthony
  • Event: (24637) Luana Carolina at (24638) Ariane Lipski
    Sport/League: MMA
    Date/Time: July 19, 2020 1AM EDT
    Play: 3% – Ariane Lipski -120
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Win

    In this main card bout Luana Carolina faces off against Ariane Lipski...

    Coming into the UFC Ariane Lipski was hyped due to her strong well rounded skill set. In her UFC debut the match makers did her no favor pinning her up against tough UFC vet Joanne Calderwood. In that bout Calderwood out preformed the newcomer getting the unanimous win over Lipski. Most recently Lipski squared off against Isabella de Padua in which Lipski won by unanimous decision. In that fight she came out guns blazing dropping de Padua in their first exchange round 1. From there Lipski had to defend multiple takedowns working control to earn the victory. Her striking seemed to elevate and more confident coming into her 3rd UFC bout. On the other side, Luana Carolina won her UFC debut against Priscila Cachoeira whom is 1-3 in the UFC. Early Priscila found success, but her lackluster defense and weak striking allowed Luana the decision victory.

    Style wise, I'd give all aspects in favor of Lipski. She has terrific boxing skills, good footwork and quick developing combinations. Carolina is very basic striking and allows opponents to walk her down. Ariane's far better technically and presents more weapons to call upon in close toe to toe exchanges. Her skills have elevated and in a fight I believe will be standing, Lipski has the weapons to push forward and cause damage. Carolina is to slow and flat footed for Lipski and allows opponents to walk her down. This is the kinda fight Lipski should thrive using her rangy strikes pushing the pace. At a -120 price tag with implied probability of 54%, I'd cap Lipski's chances of winning much higher in this spot. She'll fight smart using her hand speed to chip away and outpoint Carolina for the win.

    (added value: Lipski to win via decision +160)

    Play: Ariane Lipski -120

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