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Kyle Anthony
  • Event: (24609) Jack Hermansson at (24610) Kelvin Gastelum
    Sport/League: MMA
    Date/Time: July 19, 2020 1AM EDT
    Play: 3% – Jack Hermansson -105
    Play Rating: 3%
    Result: Win

    In the Co-Main Event of Fight Island Part 3, Kelvin Gastelum vs Jack Hermansson takes center stage...

    This is a classic grappler vs striker match up. Gastelum has the striking and power advantage while Hermansson's grappling ability is top notch. Coming into this fight Kelvin is on a 2 fight skid, losing to Current Undefeated Champion Israel Adesanya and Darren Till via decisions. In his most recent fight against Darren Till, Kelvin struggled to find his range. Till's movement using terrific distance management kept Kelvin's power limited. Mostly he'd lunge forward seeking to close distance and was unable to all fight long. While Jack Hermansson most recently faced the knockout power of Jared Cannonier. Coming into that fight Hermansson was riding a 4 fight winning streak with 3 of 4 coming by way of finish. Early Hermansson pushed takedowns finding slight success, but the strength and takedown defense of Cannonier kept him upright. That's something many of Jack's past opponents weren't able to do. An early flurry of shots in round 2, and Cannonier came out on top. 

    Physically Hermansson will be the bigger guy, giving him more strength in the clinch as well as a 6 inch reach advantage. Jack is fantastic at not only using his reach extremely well, but his very high striking output backed by strong cardio will heavily work in his favor. No doubt Kelvin has smooth combination and power but definitely susceptible to takedowns. The last 2 grappler based fighters Kelvin faced was Chris Weidman, whom is 1-5 out of his last 6 bouts, only defeating Kelvin in that span. For most of that fight Weidman strong armed Kelvin to the mat working his top control, until round 3 Weidman submitted him via arm-triangle choke. Prior to that he faced BJJ belt belt Jacare Souza, where in round 1 Souza put Kelvin to the ground almost submitting him in round 1. Kelvin won that fight via split decision due to lack of a gas tank from Souza in rounds 2 and 3. I actually had judged it Souza winning 2-1. Regardless, grapplers have a path to victory against Gastleum. Hermansson's forward pressue, awkward movement, high volume output and top level ground game is a tough mix. In a 3 round fight where Hermansson will push for takedown's every round relentlessly and only needs to land a few to win a round, I like Jack "The Joker" Hermansson in this spot. 

    Currently lines are sitting around -105 to +110 on Hermansson, and I'm all over it. Hermansson will push forward, close the distance working his grappling to another victory. 

    Play: Jack Hermansson -105