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Recent Play Details

Nick Borrman
  • Event: Burnley at Crystal Palace
    Sport/League: SOC
    Date/Time: June 29, 2020 3PM EDT
    Play: 4% – Burnley +0.25 (-110)
    Play Rating: 4%
    Result: Win

    England Premier League

    Wrong team favored here.  These teams are level on points but xG shows Palace has overperformed this year by 10 points thanks to a defense that has conceded 10 less goals than their xG suggests.  Offensively, they are right on par with their xG numbers having scored the 2nd fewest goals in the league with 28 through 31 games.  Meanwhile Burnley's defensive numbers are level with their xG, but offensively, they have scored over six less goals than their xG suggests they should have.

    Palace were embarrsed 0-4 at Liverpool as the first team in Premier League history to fail to record a touch in the opponent's box.  Zaha had to leave the game early in the first half and he could be missing or limited in this game.  Palace has won four straight over Burnley, including 2-0 this year despite losing the xG in that game by nearly a full goal at 0.94-1.85.  Sooner or later, those numbers catch up to you.

    TAKE BURNLEY +0.25

    Line Parameter: 4% at +0.25 up to -125, 3% at +0.0

    Correct Score: 0.25% Crystal Palace 1-1 (+550) Burnley and 0.25% Crystal Palace 0-1 Burnley (+725)

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