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Carmine Bianco
  • Event: (53965902) Hoffenheim at (53965901) SC Paderborn 07
    Sport/League: SOC
    Date/Time: May 23, 2020 9AM EDT
    Play: 5% – Hoffenheim +112
    Play Rating: 5%
    Result: Loss

    German Bundesliga - SC Paderborn at Hoffenheim

    Round 27 of the Bundesliga season and the one take away from Round 26 after reviewing the statistical numbers from an analytics company was that Hoffenheim seemingly held all the important variable numbers that are used to compute goal expectancy and while the final numbers had them 1.5 goals to the good the final result was a 3-0 loss to Hertha Berlin. The same HB side also won 4-0 on Friday so we can take some positives from that. Dropping points to a bottom 3 side while in a fight for a Europa League spot is something that would prove disastrous but the numbers once again have this in Hoffenheims favor and they did with the reverse fixture 3-0 to go an unbeaten 4-0-1 in all meetings with Paderborn. They were able to get off to a quick start in that fixture scoring 3 in the for 30 and maintained a 63% ball possession throughout. Paderborn held fellow bottom 3 side Dusseldorf to a scoreless draw last week while mustering only 1 shot on goal to extend their winless streak to 7 (0-5-2) and at 10 points back of a safety spot are without a doubt heading down to Bundesliga 2 next season. While both sides will be absent of a couple starters the hosts will be without a couple defenders making the task all more daunting. Hoffenheim are 3-0 this season against promoted sides and should add another win to the total here if they maintain the statistical advantages once more. 

    The play is Hoffenheim +112