Interested in joining WagerTalk at the Westgate’s SuperContest Weekend in Las Vegas? Click here<\/a> to learn more about the activities (golf, basketball, handicapping panels and more) and the discounted room block as WagerTalk takes over Sin City in August.<\/em><\/p>\n It\u2019s hard to ignore what Pete Alonso has done against Patrick Corbin in his career facing him. He\u2019s 12-33 with four home runs and they\u2019ll face off at Nationals Park tonight, a park that has given up the 6th most home runs of any MLB park.<\/p>\n The Mets overall are hot, riding a 6-game winning streak into Washington D.C. and given that Alonso has hit 15 of his 26 home runs on the road won\u2019t bother him not playing at Citi Field tonight. Alonso sits tied for 5th in the MLB with 26 home runs and has even splits in number of at-bats to home runs for both righties and lefties.<\/p>\n Corbin has faced off against the Mets three times this season already posting a 6.08 ERA and allowing one home run. Believe it or not this is actually an improvement from his overall ERA on the season of 6.49. He\u2019s given up 18 home runs in 105.1 innings pitched so far this season which is good for one every 5.8 innings pitched.<\/p>\n He\u2019s been shelled for 11 earned runs in 5.2 innings pitched over his last two starts but only allowed one home run. Expect a couple home runs to be blasted out of Nationals Park tonight by the Mets.<\/p>\n Get Alonso at +220 but other Mets you could consider are J.D. Davis (+450)<\/strong> who is 11-35 with four home runs against Corbin and Starling Marie (+500)<\/strong> who is 9-33 with a home run this year off Corbin.<\/p>\n Let’s face it, the Marlins offense has been pretty bad this season. They\u2019re 21st in home runs hit, 22nd in team batting average and 24th in runs scored this season.<\/p>\n If they\u2019re going to excel on offense though, it\u2019ll be against a guy like the Reds\u2019 Hunter Greene who has allowed the second most home runs of any pitcher in the MLB at 23. He\u2019s actually been better recently at allowing home runs, giving up only one in his last three starts but he still gave up seven earned runs in total.<\/p>\n His last start came against these same Marlins in which he went 6.1 innings and allowed two earned runs. In that game though he allowed a personal season high of 16 fly balls to 28 batters faced so we know the Marlins can at least get a good handle on his pitch location.<\/p>\n All of this is why we\u2019re going with Jesus Aguilar to crush a home run out in Miami as he hits .266 at home compared to .221 on the road. He\u2019s hit .250 with a home run against the Reds already this season.<\/p>\n The Reds also possess the league\u2019s highest bullpen ERA and have allowed the third most home runs of any bullpen in the MLB which makes other guys like Avisail Garcia and Bryan De La Cruz to hit a home run good bets as well.<\/p>\n Interested in placing a home run prop bet? PointsBet is offering two risk-free bets up to $2,000<\/a> for bettors in New Jersey, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Colorado, Michigan, Virginia and New York.<\/em><\/p>\n Join Drew Martin and a rotating panel of guests for First Pitch as we break down the daily baseball slate from a betting perspective every weekday at 1:45pm ET \/ 10:45am PT for First Pitch discussing the MLB betting slate.<\/p>\nHome Run Prop Prediction 1: Pete Alonso (+220)<\/h2>\n
Home Run Prop Prediction 2: Jesus Aguilar (TBD)<\/h2>\n
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<\/a><\/p>\nFirst Pitch | MLB Betting Preview for Monday, August 1<\/h3>\n
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