{"id":8883,"date":"2022-06-29T20:26:54","date_gmt":"2022-06-30T00:26:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=8883"},"modified":"2024-08-21T15:02:24","modified_gmt":"2024-08-21T19:02:24","slug":"2022-aac-football-betting-preview-marc-lawrences-playbook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/college-football\/2022-aac-football-betting-preview-marc-lawrences-playbook\/","title":{"rendered":"2022 AAC Football Betting Preview | Marc Lawrence&#8217;s Playbook"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>AAC Football Predictions and Betting Odds<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Football fans have been using Marc Lawrence&#8217;s Playbook to prep for upcoming football seasons for the last 30 years. Marc shares his thoughts on the 2022 AAC football season with key stats and betting angles to keep an eye on. WagerTalk offers the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\/nfl\">best NFL picks today<\/a> every single day!<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Interested in joining WagerTalk at the Westgate&#8217;s SuperContest Weekend in Las Vegas? <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/nfl\/wagertalk-joins-westgates-supercontest-weekend-august-19-21\/\">Click here<\/a> to learn more about the activities (golf, basketball, panels and more) and the discounted room block as WagerTalk takes over Sin City in August.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<h2>Upcoming AAC Realignment<\/h2>\n<p>In one of the biggest conference \u201ctrades\u201d in NCAA history, three current American Athletic Conference teams &#8211; Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF \u2013 will be leaving for the Big 12 before the 2023 academic year.<\/p>\n<p>Six C-USA teams replacing them (FAU, UAB, Charlotte, Rice, North Texas, and UTSA) would do so at the same time, to prevent the AAC from dropping to just eight teams.<\/p>\n<p>The buyout for the AAC schools is going to be $18 million each. That\u2019s the standard $10 million buyout fee, plus another $8 million each to leave early. The buyout will be paid over 14 years.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, lawyers with billable hours are still working out further details on the new incoming schools.<\/p>\n<p>With it, the American will compete as a 14-team league in football after the transition next summer.<\/p>\n<h2>2022 AAC Championship Odds<\/h2>\n<p>Odds below courtesy of DraftKings as of Wednesday, June 29:<\/p>\n<table style=\"width: 100%;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>Team<\/th>\n<th>AAC Championship Odds<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Cincinnati<\/td>\n<td>+180<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Houston<\/td>\n<td>+240<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>UCF<\/td>\n<td>+360<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>SMU<\/td>\n<td>+1000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Memphis<\/td>\n<td>+1200<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>East Carolina<\/td>\n<td>+2000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Tulsa<\/td>\n<td>+3000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Tulane<\/td>\n<td>+4500<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>South Florida<\/td>\n<td>+5500<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Navy<\/td>\n<td>+8000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Temple<\/td>\n<td>+25000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>AAC Football Betting Notes<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Since the AAC formation in 2014, the conference has dominated as favorites when coming off consecutive losses, going 40-22-1 ATS overall, including 27-11-1 ATS against foes who surrender 30 or more points per game.<\/li>\n<li>Over the same span, AAC teams have struggled in bowl games, going 21-30 ATS overall, including 2-15 SU and 3-14 ATS when facing greater than .666 opponents.<\/li>\n<li>Warning: AAC favorites coming off a SU favorite loss are 9-25 ATS against avenging foes since 2014, including 1-11 ATS in the last 12 occurrences.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>AAC Football Team Previews<\/h2>\n<p>Note: Team write-ups are excerpts from the 2022 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine \u2013 on sale at Barnes &amp; Noble and Books A Million bookstores nationwide or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.playbooksports.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">PlaybookSports.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>A breakdown of the numbers includes the team\u2019s national recruiting ranking, of 131 teams, by 247Sports as well as the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. The number listed alongside the team name designates its preseason projected win total.<\/p>\n<p><strong>CINCINNATI<\/strong> \u2013 FEELING FICKLE \u2013 9.5 W &#8211; 8 \/ 5<\/p>\n<p>The Bearcats have averaged 11 wins per season over the last four years. Only Alabama, Clemson, and Georgia have more. With it \u2013 in college football\u2019s biggest trade ever \u2013 next season Cincinnati will move on to the Big 12 as a member of the Power Five, along with Houston and UCF from the American Athletic, to be replaced by Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB, and UTSA from the Conference USA. The Bearcats ride a 16-0 conference record the past two seasons as proud as a peacock after being the first-ever of the Group of Five programs to crash the College Football Playoff last season. It should be quite a swan song this season for Luke Fickell\u2019s crew.<\/p>\n<p>PLAY AGAINST: at Tulsa (10\/1)<\/p>\n<p>STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Luke Fickell is 3-14 ATS as a favorite versus foes coming off a SUATS loss.<\/p>\n<p><strong>EAST CAROLINA<\/strong> \u2013 CARDIAC PIRACY \u2013 6.5 W &#8211; *7 \/ 8<\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately, East Carolina was one of 10 teams to have their bowl game canceled last season when the Pirates\u2019 Military Bowl game with Boston College had the plug pulled due to COVID protocols. \u201cIt was painful to digest,\u201d said head coach Mike Houston. \u201cWe were crushed.\u201d Along the way, they managed to post their first winning season since 2014 thanks to four one-score wins by a total of 11 points \u2013 while also dropping three one-score defeats. Hence, it was a pacemaker-type season for Houston\u2019s swashbucklers. With plenty of returning experience \u2013 only Tulane had more freshmen make starts than ECU in the conference \u2013 look for a real bowl game to surface this season.<\/p>\n<p>PLAY ON: vs. UCF (10\/22)<\/p>\n<p>STAT YOU WILL LIKE: After going 1-26 ATS against conference foes with a winning record from 2010-19, the Pirates are 13-3 ATS vs. the same since.<\/p>\n<p><strong>HOUSTON<\/strong> \u2013 ACID REFLUX \u2013 9 W &#8211; *7 \/ 6<\/p>\n<p>The Cougars were another team that leaped from 3-wins to a dozen last season, and with it pangs of regression loom large in 2022. For openers, the Cougars have recorded double-digit win seasons eight times in their school history dating back to 1949. They averaged 6.5 wins per season the following campaigns while degenerating an average of 4.4 wins. That\u2019s what you call regression. To top it off, they have their eye focused on joining the Big 12 next season. Dana Holgorsen realizes it, which is why he was super-active in the transfer portal in the offseason. However, the loss of RB Alton McCaskill (964 yards, 16 TDs in 2021) to an ACL is crushing.<\/p>\n<p>PLAY AGAINST: at Navy (10\/22)<\/p>\n<p>STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Head coach Dana Holgorsen\u2019s teams are 7-22 ATS with rest, including 1-12 ATS when coming off a loss.<\/p>\n<p><strong>MEMPHIS<\/strong> \u2013 ATTRITION MISSION \u2013 7.5 W &#8211; *7 \/ 6<\/p>\n<p>The Tigers\u2019 7-year bowl streak came to an end last season. The culprit was the Tigers\u2019 shoddy 5-7 mark \u2018In The Stats\u2019 (ITS) as they now stand 10-13 ITS in all games under Ryan Silverfield, including 2-7 away. This pales in comparison to the 34-20 ITS mark in the Mike Norvell years from 2016-2019. Thus, you can see where erosion is occurring. Despite seniors making 145 of the 260 overall team starts last season, they will line up with a good amount of returning experience this season. With four of its first five games this campaign against foes with losing records in 2021, a fast start is imperative if Memphis is to revisit the alleys this season.<\/p>\n<p>PLAY AGAINST: at Mississippi State (9\/3) &#8211; *KEY<\/p>\n<p>STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Tigers are 0-9 ATS away under head coach Ryan Silverfield.<\/p>\n<p><strong>NAVY<\/strong> \u2013 BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES \u2013 4.5 W &#8211; *6 \/ 6<\/p>\n<p>After struggling throughout most of the 2021 season, the Middies closed the campaign on a high note with a pair of wins, including a takedown of Army as a 7-point underdog. In the process, Navy maintained possession of the Commander-in-Chief\u2019s trophy despite fielding one of its youngest teams in recent memory in 2021. Due to injuries, the Mids had nine different starting combinations along the offensive line with ten freshmen and 19 sophomores combined on the offensive and defensive depth charts. Through it all, they improved their stats clear across the board on both sides of the ball even though Navy\u2019s twelve opponents finished the year with a combined 94-48 (.662) record, which was the third-toughest schedule in the country. Clear the deck. The swabbies are back!<\/p>\n<p>PLAY ON: at Cincinnati (11\/5)<\/p>\n<p>STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Eleven of Navy\u2019s twelve opponents in 2021 played in bowl games, which was the most in the country.<\/p>\n<p><strong>SMU<\/strong> \u2013 50 LASHES \u2013 7 W &#8211; *6 \/ 7<\/p>\n<p>New head coach Rhett Lashlee led what should have been a mess of a Miami offense to a top-50 rank in points-per-drive last season while developing young star Tyler Van Dyke in the process. His reward was landing the top spot with an SMU squad that has gone 25-10 the past three seasons under Sonny Dykes, who now takes over the reins at TCU \u2013 an hour down I-30 in Dallas. Lashlee was a quarterback at Arkansas from 2002-05 where the Hogs won 23 games and played in two bowl games. He\u2019s worked under Gus Malzahn for a good portion of his college coaching career and looks to be a good fit for the Ponies.<\/p>\n<p>PLAY ON: at Tulsa (10\/29)<\/p>\n<p>STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Mustangs are 10-2 ATS at home versus greater than .600 opponents the past five seasons.<\/p>\n<p><strong>TEMPLE<\/strong> \u2013 WAKE UP CALL \u2013 2.5 W &#8211; *7 \/ 6<\/p>\n<p>If a huge personnel turnover from last year\u2019s three-win unit wasn\u2019t bad enough, the Owls ranked only ahead of Tulsa in the AAC\u2019s transfer portal this offseason per 24\/7 Sports. New head coach Stan Drayton has won college national championships at Florida and Ohio State and coached at the NFL level. He was an associate head coach at Texas with Tom Herman and Steve Sarkisian for the Longhorns. For a team that fizzled out at 0-7 SUATS in its final seven games last season, a fast start is imperative. Facing five losing foes in its first five contests could be just the magic elixir that Drayton and the Owls need.<\/p>\n<p>PLAY ON: vs. Rutgers (9\/17)<\/p>\n<p>STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Owls averaged 0.6 points in the first quarter last season, the worst of all FBS teams.<\/p>\n<p><strong>TULANE<\/strong> \u2013 RIDE THE WAVE \u2013 6 W &#8211; *9 \/ 8<\/p>\n<p>The Wave came up a ripple short of toppling a Top-10 ranked team for the first time since 1973 when they fell inches short in a 40-35 loss at Oklahoma the opening week of last year\u2019s campaign. It put their power rating into immediate disarray for the next two months when they went 0-5 SUATS in FBS contests before sucking it up, and closing out on a 4-1 ATS run to conclude the season. The culprit was the Wave\u2019s 0-5 SUATS mark in one-score contests in 2021. With a boatload of experience returning in 2022, expect Willie Fritz to make hay in a \u201cmission season\u201d this campaign.<\/p>\n<p>PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Memphis (10\/22)<\/p>\n<p>STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Green Wave was one of only 10 teams last season that saw underclassmen tally 60% of their overall team starts.<\/p>\n<p><strong>TULSA<\/strong> \u2013 BLOWIN\u2019 IN THE WIND \u2013 6 W &#8211; *6 \/ 6<\/p>\n<p>Despite earning bowl berths each of the last two years, Phil Montgomery knows they cannot risk another 0-3 start like last year, not with Ole Miss and Cincinnati lurking on deck. Veteran QB Davis Brin and his top four wide receivers are back, but not much else. Seniors made a whopping 198 of the 287 team starts in 2021. With only one commit coming in via the Transfer Portal, another slow start looks to be in the offing. And speaking of slow starts, the Hurricane have performed more like a calm breeze early on in games the past two seasons, averaging a mere 2.9 PPG in the 1Q as opposed to 7.8 PPG in the second stanza.<br \/>\nPLAY AGAINST: at Memphis (11\/10)<\/p>\n<p>STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Golden Hurricane are 31-9-1 ATS in games in which they score 30 or more points, including 16-1 ATS as a dog.<\/p>\n<p><strong>UCF<\/strong> \u2013 WORN TREAD \u2013 9 W &#8211; *9 \/ 8<\/p>\n<p>This wasn\u2019t how it was supposed to play out. Not with offensive guru Gus Malzahn coming over from Auburn, and then watching the Knights blow out four tires behind an offense that fell off the planet when it regressed 163 yards and 10 points per game. Were it not for a staunch defensive effort that witnessed a 124 YPG improvement, UCF would have had a lot of \u2018splaining to do. Winning six of their final seven games, while holding foes to 17 or fewer points in each of the victories, quieted the faithful. Malzahn immediately hit the Transfer Portal while landing the top transfer class in the AAC. He\u2019ll need all the help he can get.<\/p>\n<p>PLAY ON: vs. Louisville (9\/9)<\/p>\n<p>STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Gus Malzahn is 16-0 SU and 14-2 ATS coming off consecutive SUATS wins when facing sub .888 foes.<\/p>\n<p><strong>USF<\/strong> \u2013 BEAM ME UP, SCOTTY \u2013 2.5 W &#8211; *10 \/ 9<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s been a slow start thus far for Jeff Scott during his two-year term at South Florida. With only three wins to show for his efforts, Scott knows this is likely his last go-round with the Bulls, and with it he\u2019ll rely heavily on a unit that is well stocked with returning starters (19) and \u201csuper seniors\u201d (12). USF is loaded with returning production, including five starters on the OL, everyne 300 pounds, who\u2019ve made 136 starts. And add to the mix former Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon (10-2 as a starter) joining the team as one of a conference-high 15 commits from the Transfer Portal. Beware of the Bulls.<\/p>\n<p>PLAY ON: vs. UCF (11\/26)<\/p>\n<p>STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Bulls are 0-8 SU but 8-0 ATS under Scott when coming off a SUATS loss.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: left;\">Meet the Experts: Marc Lawrence<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lawrence Prezman sits down with Marc Lawrence to discuss his career in the sports betting business. Marc has been a professional handicapper for over 40 years, and is celebrating the 30th anniversary of his Playbook preseason guide in 2022.<\/p>\n<div class=\"epyt-video-wrapper\"><div  style=\"display: block; margin: 0px auto;\"  id=\"_ytid_62743\"  width=\"870\" height=\"489\"  data-origwidth=\"870\" data-origheight=\"489\" data-facadesrc=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/MHIEahzBsV0?enablejsapi=1&origin=https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com&autoplay=0&cc_load_policy=1&cc_lang_pref=&iv_load_policy=1&loop=0&rel=0&fs=1&playsinline=0&autohide=2&hl=en_US&theme=dark&color=red&controls=1&disablekb=0&\" class=\"__youtube_prefs__ epyt-facade  no-lazyload\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-spai-excluded=\"true\" class=\"epyt-facade-poster skip-lazy\" loading=\"lazy\"  alt=\"Meet the Experts:  Marc Lawrence | Sports Handicappers | Playbook Magazine\"  src=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/MHIEahzBsV0\/maxresdefault.jpg\"  \/><button class=\"epyt-facade-play\" aria-label=\"Play\"><svg data-no-lazy=\"1\" height=\"100%\" version=\"1.1\" viewBox=\"0 0 68 48\" width=\"100%\"><path class=\"ytp-large-play-button-bg\" d=\"M66.52,7.74c-0.78-2.93-2.49-5.41-5.42-6.19C55.79,.13,34,0,34,0S12.21,.13,6.9,1.55 C3.97,2.33,2.27,4.81,1.48,7.74C0.06,13.05,0,24,0,24s0.06,10.95,1.48,16.26c0.78,2.93,2.49,5.41,5.42,6.19 C12.21,47.87,34,48,34,48s21.79-0.13,27.1-1.55c2.93-0.78,4.64-3.26,5.42-6.19C67.94,34.95,68,24,68,24S67.94,13.05,66.52,7.74z\" fill=\"#f00\"><\/path><path d=\"M 45,24 27,14 27,34\" fill=\"#fff\"><\/path><\/svg><\/button><\/div><\/div><span itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><meta itemprop=\"embedUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/MHIEahzBsV0\"><meta itemprop=\"name\" content=\"Meet the Experts: Marc Lawrence | Sports Handicappers | Playbook Magazine\"><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"Are you looking for the top sports handicappers? If so, in this episode of Meet the Experts, Lawrence Prezman sits down with Marc Lawrence. Who is Marc Lawrence? In addition to being on the faculty at SportsDataUniversity.com, Marc writes a weekly NFL column for the USA TODAY Sports Weekly and has authored hundreds of articles on the art and science of sports handicapping. He publishes the PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine and the weekly PLAYBOOK newsletter during the football and basketball seasons. In his over 40 years as a professional sports handicapper, Marc has won over 500 documented Top 10 handicapping achievement awards, more than anyone in the nation. He hosts the Marc Lawrence Against The Spread podcast. Marc won the 2005 STARDUST INVITATIONAL Football Contest and is a two-time WISE GUYS CONTEST champion. Thanks to his powerful sports database, Marc&#039;s technical approach to sports handicapping strongly adheres to the theory of &#039;cause and effect&#039; that the farther back you can look the farther forward you can see. Applying these findings to statistical and fundamental matchups makes for a solid handicap, and by applying &#039;value&#039; to the handicap we learn to become winners. And winning, in the long run, is what handicapping all about. \ud83d\udc4d You can get free sports picks and betting tips direct from Vegas by following the WagerTalk handicappers on Twitter: \u25ba Kelly Stewart: https:\/\/twitter.com\/kellyinvegas \u25ba Minty Bets: https:\/\/twitter.com\/MintyBets \u25ba Marco D\u2019Angelo: https:\/\/twitter.com\/MarcoInVegas \u25ba Ralph Michaels: https:\/\/twitter.com\/CalSportsLV \u25ba Teddy Covers: https:\/\/twitter.com\/teddy_covers \u25ba Bryan Leonard: https:\/\/twitter.com\/BLeonardSports \u25ba Bruce Marshall: https:\/\/twitter.com\/BruceAMarshall \u25ba Tony Finn: https:\/\/twitter.com\/FinnatWagerTalk \u25ba Gianni the Greek (VR\/Ace): https:\/\/twitter.com\/Greek_Gambler \u25ba WagerTalk: https:\/\/twitter.com\/WagerTalk \u25ba Sportsmemo: https:\/\/twitter.com\/sportsmemo \ud83d\udc47 Make sure to SUBSCRIBE to WagerTalk TV, \ud83d\udd14 CLICK the Bell and never miss an episode \ud83d\udc47 \ud83d\udcfa WagerTalk TV: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/tv \ud83c\udf10 WagerTalk: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/wt \ud83d\udcc8 Live Vegas Odds: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/odds \ud83d\uddde WagerTalk News: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/wn \ud83d\udc4d Facebook: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/fb \ud83d\udc26 Twitter: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/tw \ud83d\udcf8 Instagram: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/ig \ud83d\udcf0 reddit: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/rd \u2764\ufe0f iHeart Radio: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/iheart \ud83c\udf4e Apple Podcasts: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/ap \ud83d\udccc Pinterest: https:\/\/wt.buzz\/pin #SportsHandicappers #BestSportsHandicappers\"><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/MHIEahzBsV0\/0.jpg\"><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT1H8M10S\"><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2020-04-21T20:52:36Z\"><\/span>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Meet the Author<\/span><\/h4>\n<p>A contrarian by nature, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportsmemo.com\/profile\/marc-lawrence\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Marc Lawrence<\/a> loves ferreting out lives dogs that stand a good chance of winning the game. His \u201cWoody Hayes\u201d approach to handicapping is simple: Hayes\u2019 contention was that when you pass the ball three things can happen, and two of them are bad. In the same vein, when you bet on a favorite three things can happen and two of them are bad. Hence, when you bet on a live dog three things can happen and two of them are good. Marc is a 45-year veteran of the sports betting industry, having won more documented top-10 handicapping achievement awards than anyone in the nation &#8211; including winning the Stardust Football Invitational in 2005.<\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><strong>Latest Betting Odds and Public Action<\/strong><strong>: <\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/wt.buzz\/odds\" data-schema-attribute=\"\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Vegas lines<\/a> updated in real time, including who the public is betting on. <\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Last Minute Handicapping Advice<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">: Check out our extensive library of <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/sports-betting-guide\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">handicapping tips<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/videos\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sports betting tips video library<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">)<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Want an expert opinion?<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> Check out the latest <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Free Sports Picks<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> and <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Best Bets<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> from our team of expert sports handicappers.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>Make sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AAC Football Predictions and Betting Odds Football fans have been using Marc Lawrence&#8217;s Playbook to prep for upcoming football seasons for the last 30 years. Marc shares his thoughts on the 2022 AAC football season with key stats and betting angles to keep an eye on. WagerTalk offers the best NFL picks today every single [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1759,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[241,8,9,11],"class_list":["post-8883","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-college-football","tag-aac-football","tag-college-football","tag-ncaa-football","tag-ncaaf"],"basic_html":"<h2>AAC Football Predictions and Betting Odds<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Football fans have been using Marc Lawrence's Playbook to prep for upcoming football seasons for the last 30 years. Marc shares his thoughts on the 2022 AAC football season with key stats and betting angles to keep an eye on. WagerTalk offers the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\/nfl\">best NFL picks today<\/a> every single day!<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Interested in joining WagerTalk at the Westgate's SuperContest Weekend in Las Vegas? <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/nfl\/wagertalk-joins-westgates-supercontest-weekend-august-19-21\/\">Click here<\/a> to learn more about the activities (golf, basketball, panels and more) and the discounted room block as WagerTalk takes over Sin City in August.<\/em><\/p>\n<!--more-->\n<h2>Upcoming AAC Realignment<\/h2>\nIn one of the biggest conference \u201ctrades\u201d in NCAA history, three current American Athletic Conference teams - Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF \u2013 will be leaving for the Big 12 before the 2023 academic year.\n\nSix C-USA teams replacing them (FAU, UAB, Charlotte, Rice, North Texas, and UTSA) would do so at the same time, to prevent the AAC from dropping to just eight teams.\n\nThe buyout for the AAC schools is going to be $18 million each. That\u2019s the standard $10 million buyout fee, plus another $8 million each to leave early. The buyout will be paid over 14 years.\n\nMeanwhile, lawyers with billable hours are still working out further details on the new incoming schools.\n\nWith it, the American will compete as a 14-team league in football after the transition next summer.\n<h2>2022 AAC Championship Odds<\/h2>\nOdds below courtesy of DraftKings as of Wednesday, June 29:\n<table style=\"width: 100%;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>Team<\/th>\n<th>AAC Championship Odds<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Cincinnati<\/td>\n<td>+180<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Houston<\/td>\n<td>+240<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>UCF<\/td>\n<td>+360<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>SMU<\/td>\n<td>+1000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Memphis<\/td>\n<td>+1200<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>East Carolina<\/td>\n<td>+2000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Tulsa<\/td>\n<td>+3000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Tulane<\/td>\n<td>+4500<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>South Florida<\/td>\n<td>+5500<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Navy<\/td>\n<td>+8000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Temple<\/td>\n<td>+25000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>AAC Football Betting Notes<\/h2>\n<ul>\n \t<li>Since the AAC formation in 2014, the conference has dominated as favorites when coming off consecutive losses, going 40-22-1 ATS overall, including 27-11-1 ATS against foes who surrender 30 or more points per game.<\/li>\n \t<li>Over the same span, AAC teams have struggled in bowl games, going 21-30 ATS overall, including 2-15 SU and 3-14 ATS when facing greater than .666 opponents.<\/li>\n \t<li>Warning: AAC favorites coming off a SU favorite loss are 9-25 ATS against avenging foes since 2014, including 1-11 ATS in the last 12 occurrences.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>AAC Football Team Previews<\/h2>\nNote: Team write-ups are excerpts from the 2022 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine \u2013 on sale at Barnes &amp; Noble and Books A Million bookstores nationwide or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.playbooksports.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">PlaybookSports.com<\/a>.\n\nA breakdown of the numbers includes the team\u2019s national recruiting ranking, of 131 teams, by 247Sports as well as the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. The number listed alongside the team name designates its preseason projected win total.\n\n<strong>CINCINNATI<\/strong> \u2013 FEELING FICKLE \u2013 9.5 W - 8 \/ 5\n\nThe Bearcats have averaged 11 wins per season over the last four years. Only Alabama, Clemson, and Georgia have more. With it \u2013 in college football\u2019s biggest trade ever \u2013 next season Cincinnati will move on to the Big 12 as a member of the Power Five, along with Houston and UCF from the American Athletic, to be replaced by Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB, and UTSA from the Conference USA. The Bearcats ride a 16-0 conference record the past two seasons as proud as a peacock after being the first-ever of the Group of Five programs to crash the College Football Playoff last season. It should be quite a swan song this season for Luke Fickell\u2019s crew.\n\nPLAY AGAINST: at Tulsa (10\/1)\n\nSTAT YOU WILL LIKE: Luke Fickell is 3-14 ATS as a favorite versus foes coming off a SUATS loss.\n\n<strong>EAST CAROLINA<\/strong> \u2013 CARDIAC PIRACY \u2013 6.5 W - *7 \/ 8\n\nUnfortunately, East Carolina was one of 10 teams to have their bowl game canceled last season when the Pirates\u2019 Military Bowl game with Boston College had the plug pulled due to COVID protocols. \u201cIt was painful to digest,\u201d said head coach Mike Houston. \u201cWe were crushed.\u201d Along the way, they managed to post their first winning season since 2014 thanks to four one-score wins by a total of 11 points \u2013 while also dropping three one-score defeats. Hence, it was a pacemaker-type season for Houston\u2019s swashbucklers. With plenty of returning experience \u2013 only Tulane had more freshmen make starts than ECU in the conference \u2013 look for a real bowl game to surface this season.\n\nPLAY ON: vs. UCF (10\/22)\n\nSTAT YOU WILL LIKE: After going 1-26 ATS against conference foes with a winning record from 2010-19, the Pirates are 13-3 ATS vs. the same since.\n\n<strong>HOUSTON<\/strong> \u2013 ACID REFLUX \u2013 9 W - *7 \/ 6\n\nThe Cougars were another team that leaped from 3-wins to a dozen last season, and with it pangs of regression loom large in 2022. For openers, the Cougars have recorded double-digit win seasons eight times in their school history dating back to 1949. They averaged 6.5 wins per season the following campaigns while degenerating an average of 4.4 wins. That\u2019s what you call regression. To top it off, they have their eye focused on joining the Big 12 next season. Dana Holgorsen realizes it, which is why he was super-active in the transfer portal in the offseason. However, the loss of RB Alton McCaskill (964 yards, 16 TDs in 2021) to an ACL is crushing.\n\nPLAY AGAINST: at Navy (10\/22)\n\nSTAT YOU WILL LIKE: Head coach Dana Holgorsen\u2019s teams are 7-22 ATS with rest, including 1-12 ATS when coming off a loss.\n\n<strong>MEMPHIS<\/strong> \u2013 ATTRITION MISSION \u2013 7.5 W - *7 \/ 6\n\nThe Tigers\u2019 7-year bowl streak came to an end last season. The culprit was the Tigers\u2019 shoddy 5-7 mark \u2018In The Stats\u2019 (ITS) as they now stand 10-13 ITS in all games under Ryan Silverfield, including 2-7 away. This pales in comparison to the 34-20 ITS mark in the Mike Norvell years from 2016-2019. Thus, you can see where erosion is occurring. Despite seniors making 145 of the 260 overall team starts last season, they will line up with a good amount of returning experience this season. With four of its first five games this campaign against foes with losing records in 2021, a fast start is imperative if Memphis is to revisit the alleys this season.\n\nPLAY AGAINST: at Mississippi State (9\/3) - *KEY\n\nSTAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Tigers are 0-9 ATS away under head coach Ryan Silverfield.\n\n<strong>NAVY<\/strong> \u2013 BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES \u2013 4.5 W - *6 \/ 6\n\nAfter struggling throughout most of the 2021 season, the Middies closed the campaign on a high note with a pair of wins, including a takedown of Army as a 7-point underdog. In the process, Navy maintained possession of the Commander-in-Chief\u2019s trophy despite fielding one of its youngest teams in recent memory in 2021. Due to injuries, the Mids had nine different starting combinations along the offensive line with ten freshmen and 19 sophomores combined on the offensive and defensive depth charts. Through it all, they improved their stats clear across the board on both sides of the ball even though Navy\u2019s twelve opponents finished the year with a combined 94-48 (.662) record, which was the third-toughest schedule in the country. Clear the deck. The swabbies are back!\n\nPLAY ON: at Cincinnati (11\/5)\n\nSTAT YOU WILL LIKE: Eleven of Navy\u2019s twelve opponents in 2021 played in bowl games, which was the most in the country.\n\n<strong>SMU<\/strong> \u2013 50 LASHES \u2013 7 W - *6 \/ 7\n\nNew head coach Rhett Lashlee led what should have been a mess of a Miami offense to a top-50 rank in points-per-drive last season while developing young star Tyler Van Dyke in the process. His reward was landing the top spot with an SMU squad that has gone 25-10 the past three seasons under Sonny Dykes, who now takes over the reins at TCU \u2013 an hour down I-30 in Dallas. Lashlee was a quarterback at Arkansas from 2002-05 where the Hogs won 23 games and played in two bowl games. He\u2019s worked under Gus Malzahn for a good portion of his college coaching career and looks to be a good fit for the Ponies.\n\nPLAY ON: at Tulsa (10\/29)\n\nSTAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Mustangs are 10-2 ATS at home versus greater than .600 opponents the past five seasons.\n\n<strong>TEMPLE<\/strong> \u2013 WAKE UP CALL \u2013 2.5 W - *7 \/ 6\n\nIf a huge personnel turnover from last year\u2019s three-win unit wasn\u2019t bad enough, the Owls ranked only ahead of Tulsa in the AAC\u2019s transfer portal this offseason per 24\/7 Sports. New head coach Stan Drayton has won college national championships at Florida and Ohio State and coached at the NFL level. He was an associate head coach at Texas with Tom Herman and Steve Sarkisian for the Longhorns. For a team that fizzled out at 0-7 SUATS in its final seven games last season, a fast start is imperative. Facing five losing foes in its first five contests could be just the magic elixir that Drayton and the Owls need.\n\nPLAY ON: vs. Rutgers (9\/17)\n\nSTAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Owls averaged 0.6 points in the first quarter last season, the worst of all FBS teams.\n\n<strong>TULANE<\/strong> \u2013 RIDE THE WAVE \u2013 6 W - *9 \/ 8\n\nThe Wave came up a ripple short of toppling a Top-10 ranked team for the first time since 1973 when they fell inches short in a 40-35 loss at Oklahoma the opening week of last year\u2019s campaign. It put their power rating into immediate disarray for the next two months when they went 0-5 SUATS in FBS contests before sucking it up, and closing out on a 4-1 ATS run to conclude the season. The culprit was the Wave\u2019s 0-5 SUATS mark in one-score contests in 2021. With a boatload of experience returning in 2022, expect Willie Fritz to make hay in a \u201cmission season\u201d this campaign.\n\nPLAY ON: as a dog vs. Memphis (10\/22)\n\nSTAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Green Wave was one of only 10 teams last season that saw underclassmen tally 60% of their overall team starts.\n\n<strong>TULSA<\/strong> \u2013 BLOWIN\u2019 IN THE WIND \u2013 6 W - *6 \/ 6\n\nDespite earning bowl berths each of the last two years, Phil Montgomery knows they cannot risk another 0-3 start like last year, not with Ole Miss and Cincinnati lurking on deck. Veteran QB Davis Brin and his top four wide receivers are back, but not much else. Seniors made a whopping 198 of the 287 team starts in 2021. With only one commit coming in via the Transfer Portal, another slow start looks to be in the offing. And speaking of slow starts, the Hurricane have performed more like a calm breeze early on in games the past two seasons, averaging a mere 2.9 PPG in the 1Q as opposed to 7.8 PPG in the second stanza.\nPLAY AGAINST: at Memphis (11\/10)\n\nSTAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Golden Hurricane are 31-9-1 ATS in games in which they score 30 or more points, including 16-1 ATS as a dog.\n\n<strong>UCF<\/strong> \u2013 WORN TREAD \u2013 9 W - *9 \/ 8\n\nThis wasn\u2019t how it was supposed to play out. Not with offensive guru Gus Malzahn coming over from Auburn, and then watching the Knights blow out four tires behind an offense that fell off the planet when it regressed 163 yards and 10 points per game. Were it not for a staunch defensive effort that witnessed a 124 YPG improvement, UCF would have had a lot of \u2018splaining to do. Winning six of their final seven games, while holding foes to 17 or fewer points in each of the victories, quieted the faithful. Malzahn immediately hit the Transfer Portal while landing the top transfer class in the AAC. He\u2019ll need all the help he can get.\n\nPLAY ON: vs. Louisville (9\/9)\n\nSTAT YOU WILL LIKE: Gus Malzahn is 16-0 SU and 14-2 ATS coming off consecutive SUATS wins when facing sub .888 foes.\n\n<strong>USF<\/strong> \u2013 BEAM ME UP, SCOTTY \u2013 2.5 W - *10 \/ 9\n\nIt\u2019s been a slow start thus far for Jeff Scott during his two-year term at South Florida. With only three wins to show for his efforts, Scott knows this is likely his last go-round with the Bulls, and with it he\u2019ll rely heavily on a unit that is well stocked with returning starters (19) and \u201csuper seniors\u201d (12). USF is loaded with returning production, including five starters on the OL, everyne 300 pounds, who\u2019ve made 136 starts. And add to the mix former Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon (10-2 as a starter) joining the team as one of a conference-high 15 commits from the Transfer Portal. Beware of the Bulls.\n\nPLAY ON: vs. UCF (11\/26)\n\nSTAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Bulls are 0-8 SU but 8-0 ATS under Scott when coming off a SUATS loss.\n<h3 style=\"text-align: left;\">Meet the Experts: Marc Lawrence<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lawrence Prezman sits down with Marc Lawrence to discuss his career in the sports betting business. Marc has been a professional handicapper for over 40 years, and is celebrating the 30th anniversary of his Playbook preseason guide in 2022.<\/p>\n[embedyt] https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=MHIEahzBsV0[\/embedyt]\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>**************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Meet the Author<\/span><\/h4>\nA contrarian by nature, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportsmemo.com\/profile\/marc-lawrence\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Marc Lawrence<\/a> loves ferreting out lives dogs that stand a good chance of winning the game. His \u201cWoody Hayes\u201d approach to handicapping is simple: Hayes\u2019 contention was that when you pass the ball three things can happen, and two of them are bad. In the same vein, when you bet on a favorite three things can happen and two of them are bad. Hence, when you bet on a live dog three things can happen and two of them are good. Marc is a 45-year veteran of the sports betting industry, having won more documented top-10 handicapping achievement awards than anyone in the nation - including winning the Stardust Football Invitational in 2005.\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?<\/span><\/h4>\n<ul>\n \t<li style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"><strong>Latest Betting Odds and Public Action<\/strong><strong>: <\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/wt.buzz\/odds\" data-schema-attribute=\"\">Vegas lines<\/a> updated in real time, including who the public is betting on. <\/span><\/li>\n \t<li style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Last Minute Handicapping Advice<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">: Check out our extensive library of <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/sports-betting-guide\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">handicapping tips<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/videos\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sports betting tips video library<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">)<\/span><\/li>\n \t<li style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Want an expert opinion?<\/strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> Check out the latest <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/free-sports-picks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Free Sports Picks<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> and <\/span><a style=\"font-size: 12pt;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/picks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Best Bets<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\"> from our team of expert sports handicappers.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>Make sure to bookmark all the above!<\/strong><\/em><\/p>","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8883","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8883"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8883\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31116,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8883\/revisions\/31116"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1759"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8883"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8883"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8883"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}