{"id":8013,"date":"2022-06-13T20:21:39","date_gmt":"2022-06-14T00:21:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/?p=8013"},"modified":"2022-06-13T20:21:41","modified_gmt":"2022-06-14T00:21:41","slug":"germany-vs-italy-prediction-and-betting-odds-uefa-nations-league-june-14","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/soccer\/germany-vs-italy-prediction-and-betting-odds-uefa-nations-league-june-14\/","title":{"rendered":"Germany vs Italy Prediction and Betting Odds | UEFA Nations League June 14"},"content":{"rendered":"

Germany vs Italy Betting Preview<\/h2>\n

WagerTalk soccer handicapper Kevin Dolan shares his thoughts on Tuesday’s Germany vs Italy clash in the UEFA Nations League. These two teams played to a 1-1 draw ten days ago in Bologna.<\/p>\n

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<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Tuesday, June 14<\/th>\nUEFA Nations League Betting Notes<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Germany:<\/td>\n-140<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Italy:<\/td>\n+370<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Draw:<\/td>\n+285<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total:<\/td>\n2.5 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings<\/a>)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Game Time:<\/td>\n2:45pm ET \/ 11:45am PT<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Germany vs Italy Analysis<\/h2>\n

With just three points separating all four teams in Group A3, Germany knows a win here at home on Tuesday will drastically alter their positioning as they currently sit third in the group with zero wins and just three total points.<\/p>\n

Italy has semi-struggled since last summer\u2019s heroics, edging out Hungary 2-1 in Cesana last week which remains their only win of the group so far.<\/p>\n

These two teams played in the opening game of the group just ten days ago over in Bologna with Italy opening the scoring through a well worked Lorenzo Pellegrini goal before Joshua Kimmich equalized for the Germans just three minutes later with a blazing low shot just inside the left corner post to finish 1-1.<\/p>\n

Italy\u2019s Dismal Road Form<\/h3>\n

Despite currently sitting top of the group with the most points and tied for the most goals over this campaign so far, Italy\u2019s drop-off in road form this year has been stark.<\/p>\n

Italy has averaged the most goals and most shots out of any team in the group at home this year, but away from home it\u2019s been a much different story with Italy being the only team with zero goals and the group\u2019s lowest shot count overall as well.<\/p>\n

Along with this Italy\u2019s xG numbers drop off from home to road this campaign has been huge, going from 1.24 xG (13th) at home to 0.08 xG (45th) on the road, but with just one game played away from home so far in this group, it\u2019s much too early to say whether this will continue to be a factor for Italy moving forward in the Nations League.<\/p>\n

Germany Not Converting Possession Into Attack<\/h3>\n

Despite leading the group in overall possession and pass accuracy so far this year, the Germans have looked stunted in attack for the most part with the groups lowest overall shots per game rating and the lowest xG as well.<\/p>\n

At home it gets even worse for the Germans however with their xG dipping from an already group-low 0.75 xG per game to just 0.54 xG at home in that sole draw against England last week.<\/p>\n

As with Italy above however, being only a small one game sample size at home over this group so far, it\u2019ll be interesting to see if Germany can turn things around here on home soil against the Italians on Tuesday.<\/p>\n

Germany vs Italy Prediction<\/h2>\n

Germany just hasn\u2019t looked anywhere near clinical enough over this campaign so far to warrant getting Italy at +0.75 in my opinion and that\u2019s the way we\u2019re going to look in this one on Tuesday.<\/p>\n

While Italy\u2019s road form has been less than impressive over this Nations League campaign so far, they nevertheless remain an incredibly hard team to beat in any capacity, going 17-straight games now unbeaten on the road going all the way back to September 2018 and have won 13 of those outright.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re taking Italy +0.75<\/strong> on Tuesday against Germany over in Nations League Group A3.<\/p>\n

Soccer Betting 101<\/h3>\n

New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.<\/p>\n

\"Soccer