ESPN+<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\nLightning vs Penguins Analysis<\/h2>\nThe Pittsburgh Penguins have put together back-to-back wins over recent games after dropping three straight against the Leafs, Hurricanes and Devils respectively since mid-February.<\/p>\n The Tampa Bay Lightning meanwhile have been on a red-hot run of late, winning five straight games on the bounce and enter Thursday\u2019s contest with a scorching 18-4-4 home record this season also.<\/p>\n This will be the teams\u2019 third meeting this season with both team\u2019s taking one game apiece, Pittsburgh winning at home against the Lightning 6-2 back on opening night before the Lightning returned the favor with a 5-1 demolition in Pittsburgh back on October 26th.<\/p>\n Penguin\u2019s Mis-firing in Front of Net<\/h3>\nDespite what on paper is an extremely competent offense this season, with the Penguins on the cusp of a top ten position in overall scoring this year banking 3.20 goals per game, it hasn\u2019t stopped this Penguins team from mis-firing quite consistently in games this year and posting offensive numbers that arguably should be quite a bit higher.<\/p>\n The Penguins are sub 10% this season on shot-to-goal percentage, posting a 9.19% conversion rate, just 0.18% higher than Seattle\u2019s this season. With Pittsburgh averaging just 1.8 goals per game over their last five starts as well, those are numbers that simply have to improve if they\u2019re going to get anything from this game on Thursday night.<\/p>\n Lightning Top of the Atlantic<\/h3>\nThe Tampa Bay Lightning reclaimed their spot at the top of the Atlantic Division on Tuesday with a come from behind 5-2 win against Ottawa, not that the Senators made it easy in that one.<\/p>\n The Lightning were blown out early with two goals over just the opening four minutes of play, with the Senators arguably going further ahead if not for the efforts of star goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy in that one, before Tampa Bay were finally able to steady the ship and go on to score five goals off just 22 shots in that game for a 22.7% overall conversion rate.<\/p>\n The Lightning already boast the league\u2019s second highest-conversion rate this season at 11.52%.<\/p>\n Lightning vs Penguins Prediction<\/h2>\nIt\u2019s not often we advise standing in front of a moving train but that\u2019s exactly what we\u2019re looking to do on Thursday night by taking the Tampa Bay Lightning team total under 3.5 goals<\/strong> in this one against the Pittsburgh Penguins.<\/p>\nWhile Tampa Bay has been hot in front of goal this season, they\u2019ve also been fortunate, boasting a +20 expected goal differential this season between actual and expected goals, the fourth-highest margin in the league this season.<\/p>\n On top of that, Tristan Jarry is expected in nets tonight for the Penguins and the young Canadian has been in red-hot form this season, ranking 6th on the year on overall GSAA average and posting a .921 SV% this season with the third-highest number of shutouts this year also.<\/p>\n We like the Penguins to limit the Lightning here on Thursday night so take the Tampa Bay Lightning team total under 3.5 goals tonight down in Florida.<\/p>\n ![\"Caesars](\"https:\/\/www.wagertalk.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/caesars_logo_wide_@2x.png\") <\/a><\/p>\nInterested in placing a bet on Thursday night’s Lightning vs Penguins showdown in Tampa? Caesars Sports is offering up to a $1,500 match bet<\/a> for first-time deposits in New Jersey, West Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, New York and Louisiana.<\/em><\/p>\n
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