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<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n\nKey Matchups and Handicap: Packers vs Patriots<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
This will be the first meeting between these teams since Green Bay earned a 27-24 overtime win at Lambeau Field in October 2022. The Packers bring a hot cover streak and extra rest, while the Patriots return home looking to snap a three-game skid at the betting window. The matchup on the field, however, favors New England's defense against Green Bay's big-play-dependent offense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Packers Riding a Cover Streak<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The Packers had a couple of extra days to prepare after beating Carolina at home last Thursday. Green Bay has covered the closing spread in five straight games, and all five have stayed under the total. The defense held Carolina to 258 total yards and 14 first downs on just 3.7 yards per play last week. <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Green Bay also appears to be leaning heavily on Josh Jacobs, who has scored three touchdowns in two games, though questions continue to mount about his status for the rest of the season amid abuse allegations. His presence has allowed some banged-up offensive players to rest for the stretch run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Green Bay Offense Lacks Efficiency<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Green Bay enters this week in the bottom five in offensive success rate, behind teams like the Titans, Commanders, and Dolphins. Most of the Packers' offensive success has come through explosive plays, and that is going to be a struggle against this New England defense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Patriots Defense Can Shut Down Big Plays<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Miami did not have a single receiver clear 50 yards against the Patriots' defense last week. The week before, New England went toe-to-toe with Chicago, holding a +1.5 yards-per-play advantage against the Bears, but could not overcome a costly turnover. The Patriots split their two-game road trip, losing at Chicago and winning at Miami, though the Dolphins snuck in the back door with a late cover, extending New England's ATS losing streak to three games. The Patriots' last five games have all gone over the total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
New England Receiver Questions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Wide receiver AJ Brown did not play in last week's win over Miami, and head coach Mike Vrabel was not overly optimistic about Brown's outlook for this week. Fellow receiver Mack Hollins is scheduled to come off IR, but it is unclear whether he will actually take the field. Those absences could limit New England's passing attack, which supports a lower-scoring game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
GB vs NE Betting Trends<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nGB vs NE Key Injuries and Notes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nPackers vs Patriots ATS and Total Picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
ATS Pick: Patriots -3 (-115).<\/strong> Siding with the short home favorite makes sense at -2.5 or -3. Green Bay's offense ranks near the bottom of the league in success rate and depends on explosive plays, which New England's defense has been excellent at preventing. The Patriots outplayed Chicago on a per-play basis and smothered Miami's receivers last week. Bettors who can still find -2.5 should grab it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMoneyline Pick: New England Patriots.<\/strong> At home and with a defense built to frustrate Green Bay's offense, the Patriots are the stronger side to win outright.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nTotal Pick: Under 45.5 (-112).<\/strong> Green Bay's games have stayed under in five straight, its offense lacks efficiency, and New England may be without AJ Brown. The total has dropped two points despite heavy public over action, a sign that the market sees a lower-scoring game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nPackers vs Patriots Best Bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nFinal Score Prediction for Packers vs Patriots<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Green Bay's defense will keep this competitive, but its inefficient offense should struggle to find the big plays it needs against New England. Expect the Patriots to grind out a home win and cover the short number in a game that stays under the total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
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