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<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n\nKey Matchups and Handicap: New Mexico vs Nevada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
New Mexico is in the driver's seat for the Group of 6 playoff spot, and style points are unlikely to sway the selection committee as long as the Lobos keep winning. But a closer look at recent results shows a team grinding out narrow victories behind its defense while the offense sputters. Nevada, meanwhile, has a defense capable of making this ugly, if it can solve its quarterback problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
New Mexico Winning Ugly<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Head coach Jason Eck has had a tough time of it lately, with back-to-back 21-16 results against North Dakota State and San Jose State. Before that, the Lobos took an awfully long time to put away a two-win Hawaii team, again finishing with 21 points. With several challenging Mountain West dates still ahead, it would not be surprising if New Mexico keeps making hard work for itself in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
UNM Defense Leads the Nation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n
The reason 21 points has been enough is New Mexico's defense, which ranks first in the nation in scoring defense at 11.88 points per game. Eck's ballhawks have also recorded a nation-best 17 interceptions. That unit could feast in Reno, given what Nevada's quarterbacks have shown recently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
New Mexico Quarterback Concerns<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Eck's fire-drill offense has its own rough spots to smooth out. Quarterback Toa Fa'avae has turned mistake-prone, throwing just one touchdown pass against six interceptions over the past three games. If those turnovers continue, Nevada's defense will have chances to keep the game within reach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Nevada Quarterback Turmoil<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Wolf Pack quarterback Luke Duncan threw three interceptions in the first 7:27 last Saturday against his former team, UCLA, forcing head coach Jeff Choate to turn to the recently injured AJ Bianco. Bianco and early-season starter Carter Jones, who has also been hurt recently, are both higher on the depth chart and are not expected to be as generous as Duncan. Still, Choate might be best served going with direct snaps to running backs Herschel Turner and Dominic Kelley to avoid mistakes against the nation's top interception unit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Wolf Pack Defense Can Keep It Close<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Choate's defense is the reason Nevada can hang around. The unit allows just 21.8 points per game and flustered fifth-ranked UCLA for much of last Saturday. If the offense simply avoids turnovers, that defense is capable of keeping the Wolf Pack within earshot of a New Mexico offense that has been stuck on 21 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
UNM vs NEV Betting Trends<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nUNM vs NEV Key Injuries and Notes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nNew Mexico vs Nevada ATS and Total Picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
ATS Pick: Nevada +9.5 (-108).<\/strong> New Mexico has not been putting teams away, and its offense has been stuck on 21 points for three straight games. Nevada's defense is good enough to keep this close, and if Choate leans on his running backs to limit mistakes, the Wolf Pack can stay inside the number. The market has moved three points toward Nevada, confirming the value on the home underdog.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nMoneyline Pick: New Mexico.<\/strong> The Lobos' elite defense and ball-hawking secondary should be enough to secure another win, even if it is not pretty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nTotal Pick: Under 36.5 (+102).<\/strong> The total has fallen six points, but there is still value at plus money. New Mexico's defense allows under 12 points per game, Nevada's defense is stout, and both quarterback rooms are dealing with turnover issues. Expect a slow, grinding contest dominated by defense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\nNew Mexico vs Nevada Best Bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n\n\nFinal Score Prediction for New Mexico vs Nevada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n\n\n
New Mexico should find a way to win again, likely landing on its familiar 21 points, but Nevada's defense has enough bite to keep this close in Reno. Expect another tight, low-scoring Lobos victory that falls short of the spread and stays under the total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
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